The Boston Red Sox (3-8) and Tampa Bay Rays (5-6) continue their series Wednesday at 6:40 p.m. ET at Tropicana Field. We analyze the Red Sox-Rays betting odds and lines, with MLB picks and best bets.
As hosts, the Rays won Tuesday’s opener 5-1. These AL East rivals will each send a southpaw to the hill Tuesday.
Red Sox at Rays: Projected starting pitchers
LHP Martin Perez at LHP Ryan Yarbrough
Perez doesn’t strike out many batters and has lived up to that reputation so far, falling to a 5.06 ERA in his first two starts; he’s failed to complete the sixth both times.
- The southpaw, who spent most of his career with the Texas Rangers, holds a 6.75 ERA in 10 games (eight starts) against the Rays.
- His struggles include an 8.39 ERA in five games (four starts) at Tropicana Field.
Yarbrough was better than his 4.13 ERA showed last year, but he’s not as good as his 1.54 ERA from his first two appearances of 2020 (hint: just 5.4 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 — not a good K:BB).
- Yarbrough actually was worse at home last season, enduring a 5.46 ERA in 12 starts.
- More bad news: Yarbrough gave up 14 runs in 18 1/3 innings versus Boston last year, resulting in an ugly 6.87 ERA.
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Red Sox at Rays: Key injuries
Visit sportsdata.usatoday.com to track all MLB injuries leading up to game time.
Red Sox
- 2B Dustin Pedroia (knee) out
- SP Eduardo Rodriguez (COVID-19 complications) out
- SP Collin McHugh (elbow) out
- SP Chris Sale (elbow) out
Rays
- OF Manuel Margot (back) questionable
Red Sox at Rays: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:40 p.m. ET.
Prediction
Rays 8, Red Sox 7
Moneyline (ML)
- Red Sox +125
- Rays -139
I imagine this one will be determined by the bullpens, considering the stamina concerns with both starters. In that case, I’d certainly trust Tampa Bay’s stout ‘pen, anchored by righty Nick Anderson.
I’d lean with the Rays (-139), but I wouldn’t put too much on it.
New to sports betting? A $10 bet on the Rays’ moneyline would return a profit of $7.19.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
- Red Sox +1 (+121)
- Rays -1 (+100)
My concerns about these starting pitchers prompt me to PASS on this run line, which doesn’t have much separation in return on investment between the favorite and underdog.
Over/Under (O/U)
- Over 8.5 (-110)
- Under 8.5 (-110)
Given the shortcomings of the two lefty starters; Boston’s track record of success against lefty pitchers; and Tampa Bay’s often deft platooning should light up the scoreboard. Plus, Rays OF Austin Meadows‘ return to the lineup has boosted my confidence. BET the OVER 8.5 (-110).
New to sports betting? A $10 bet on the Rays’ run line would return a profit of $9.09.
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