The New York Mets (4-8) and Washington Nationals (4-4) conclude a short two-game series Wednesday at Nationals Park with the first pitch scheduled for 6:05 p.m. ET. We analyze the Mets-Nationals MLB betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.
Tuesday: The Nationals returned from a four-day break – due to the Miami Marlins’ COVID-19 outbreak – and defeated the Mets 5-3.
Mets at Nationals: Projected starting pitchers
RHP Rick Porcello vs. RHP Max Scherzer
Porcello this season: 0-1, 13.50 ERA (9 ER, 6 IP), 6 K in 2 starts
- Last start: No-decision, 3 ER, 4 IP, 4 H, 3 BB, 5 K at Atlanta Braves Friday – Mets lost 11-10
- Last season (for Boston Red Sox): 14-12, 5.52 (107 ER, 174 1/3 IP), 143 K in 32 starts
- Career vs. Nationals: 2-0, 3.21 ERA (5 ER, 14 IP) in 2 starts, including 4-3 win at Nationals Park in 2018
Scherzer this season: 0-1, 2.84 (4 ER, 12 2/3 IP), 21 K in 2 starts
- Last start: No-decision, 0 ER, 7 1/3 IP, 3 H, 10 K vs. Toronto Blue Jays – Nationals won 4-0
- Last season: 11-7, 2.92 ERA (56 ER, 172 1/3 IP) 243 K in 27 starts
- Career vs. Mets: 10-5, 2.63 ERA (40 ER, 137 IP) in 20 starts and one relief outing
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Mets at Nationals: Key injuries
(List of injuries around the league)
Mets
- 2B Robinson Cano (groin) out
- OF Yoenis Cespedes (COVID concerns) out for season
- RP Robert Gsellman (triceps) out
- OF Jake Marisnick (hamstring) out
- OF Jeff McNeil (ribs) questionable
- SS Amed Rosario (quadriceps) questionable
Nationals
- RP Will Harris (groin) out
- 1B Eric Thames (back) questionable
- OF Juan Soto (conditioning) questionable
Also see: BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
Mets at Nationals: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:30 a.m. ET.
Prediction
Nationals 5, Mets 1
Moneyline (ML)
The Nationals (-209) are more than a 2-to-1 favorite as they should be vs. the Mets (+185), especially with Scherzer on the hill. But the price is too expensive. I don’t like that kind of risk. One twisted ankle, one wicked line drive back to mound, one weather delay … each could force the three-time Cy Young winner out early and now I’m sweating a -208 bet? No thanks. I’ll PASS and focus on Washington’s run line.
New to sports betting? Just to win a $1 on a Nationals moneyline bet, you must wager $2.09. Imagine sitting on a $2,090 wager to win $1,000, or a $1,045 bet to win $500 and Scherzer exits early – that’s not the kind of fun sports gambling I’m looking for.
Run line/Against the spread (ATS)
The NATIONALS (-1.5, +100) is the way to go. It’s not as dangerous as the moneyline. Every $1 wagered profits $1, but Washington has to win by two or more runs. Still, I like my chances with Scherzer, who should finish with double-digit strikeouts while picking up his first W of the season.
Over/Under (O/U)
UNDER 8.5 (-110) is the STRONGEST PLAY. The Nationals are 2-6 O/U so far this season, while the Mets are 4-8. Plus, Washington’s offense averages only 3.6 runs per game, while New York, losers in six of its last, scores 4.0 runs per game.
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| Johnny’s 2020 MLB record | 14-7 |
| 2020 overall record | 51-33-1 |
| Strongest plays | 27-14 |
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