Memphis Grizzlies vs. Portland Trail Blazers odds, picks and best bets

Previewing Friday’s Memphis Grizzlies and Portland Trail Blazers sports betting odds and lines, with NBA betting picks, tips and best bets.

The Memphis Grizzlies (32-33) meet the Portland Trail Blazers (29-37) Friday at the ESPN Wide World of Sports Arena in Orlando, Fla., for a 4 p.m. ET tip-off. We analyze the Grizzlies-Trail Blazers NBA betting odds and lines, with picks and best bets.

Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers: Key Injuries

Grizzlies

  • PF Justise Winslow (hip) out
  • PG Tyus Jones (knee) out

Trail Blazers

  • G Jaylen Adams (back) questionable
  • SF Trevor Ariza (personal) out
  • SG Rodney Hood (Achilles) out
  • PF Caleb Swanigan (personal) out

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Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips

NBA odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:30 a.m. ET.

Prediction

Grizzlies 116, Blazers 111

Moneyline (ML)

This is pretty much a playoff game for the Trail Blazers, who are 3½ games back of the Grizzlies for the 8-seed in the Western Conference with only an eight-game NBA restart schedule to make it up.

While the return of C Jusuf Nurkic could play a major role for the Blazers, Memphis’ starting center Jonas Valančiūnas has gotten the better of Nurkic in their seven head-to-head meetings, going 6-1. Valančiūnas averages 13.4 points per game on .594 field-goal percentage compared to Nurkic, who averages 10.1 PPG on .429 field-goal percentage, according to landofbasketball.com.

The Grizzlies play a better brand of basketball as well. Memphis is ranked fifth in passes made, third in assists per game and fourth in assist created points. Portland is last in each of these stats.

Granted the Trail Blazers have been without Nurkic, but the Grizzlies do a better job on the glass. The Grizzlies have a +1.7 rebound per game differential whereas Portland has a -2.0 rebound per game differential.

LIKE GRIZZLIES (+135) on the moneyline.

New to sports betting? A $100 bet on the Grizzlies (+135) returns a profit of $135 if Memphis beats Portland.

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Line/Against the Spread (ATS)

We LOVE the GRIZZLIES (+3, -110) for insurance on our moneyline play. On the first night of the NBA restart, both the Jazz-Pelicans and Clippers-Lakers were decided by two points so that’s a mini-bubble trend we can monitor.

More importantly, a lot of betting trends line up nicely for Memphis in this matchup. The Grizzlies are better against bookmakers’ expectations:  Memphis has a 34-30-1 ATS record in the regular season while the Trail Blazers are 27-32-2 ATS.

Memphis is 20-14 ATS vs. sub-.500 teams; Portland is just 15-19-1. Furthermore, the Grizzlies are 4-2 ATS when getting 1-2.5 points, while Portland is 2-3 ATS when favored by 1-2.5 points.

Over/Under (O/U)

I am going to PASS on the O/U 223.5. My heart tells me this goes Over because of Memphis’ weak 3-point defense and Portland’s 3-point prowess. However, both games on Thursday went below the projected total and it occurred to me that maybe there’s some rust that needs to be knocked off by every team.

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