NFLPA research shows number of Covid-19 cases in 49ers’ market going wrong direction

The 49ers won’t be able to go into their team facility any time soon if Covid-19 numbers continue trending up in Santa Clara.

The 49ers may encounter a problem as the NFL continues on course to begin training camps on July 28. While Covid-19 cases in Santa Clara are among the lowest 14-day averages in NFL markets, they’re trending in the wrong direction according research distributed by the NFL Player’s Association.

The NFLPA’s website has an interactive map that tracks each NFL market’s 14-day average daily cases, 14-day average daily cases per 100,000 people, and cumulative cases per 100,000 people.

The 49ers reside in the San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara portion of the map, which has the fifth-lowest 14-day average daily cases across NFL markets with 181 cases. New England, Indianapolis, Buffalo and Green Bay are the four teams with better two-week averages.

While that sounds like good news, a further breakdown provided by the NFLPA helps explain why the 49ers’ facility is still closed, along with a slew of other non-essential business both in Santa Clara and across the state.

On May 21, the 14-day average per 100,000 people was down to 0.8 —  the lowest mark the Santa Clara area had seen since the data begins on March 23. The latest numbers available are on July 13, where that average has skyrocketed to 9.1 cases per 100,000 — more than double the previous high of 3.7 on March 30. That 9.1 figure is the 12th-lowest among NFL markets. Miami has the highest per-100,000 average at 67.5.

So what exactly does this mean for the 49ers?

While their numbers are low relative to a team like the Dolphins, local protocols come into consideration when determining whether the 49ers will be allowed to begin camp on July 28. The league has a set of guidelines, but any local rules supersede those.

Given that San Francisco’s facility never opened when the numbers were at their lowest point, it’s hard to believe the building will be open for the mass entry of players, coaches and other personnel needed to start training camp.

While the NFL and NFL Player’s Association hammer out rules for safely and fairly operating a football league amidst a global pandemic, the 49ers continue to be in the dark on whether they’ll be able to begin camp with the rest of the league. There’s been silence on whether the club will be granted permission by the state to use their building and facilities for camp, or if they’ll be moved to a different location until they can return home, or if the league will pump the brakes on firing up until all their markets are open and able to participate with the rest of the teams.

The NFL is ready to move forward unimpeded by Covid-19, but the numbers presented by the NFLPA make it tough to see California and its three teams getting on the same timeline.