There are several factors at play why the Dallas Cowboys and Dak Prescott are failing to reach a long-term agreement before Wednesday’s deadline. At the crux of things, the two sides have not agreed on length and guaranteed compensation for the fifth-year quarterback.
Prescott wanted a shorter, four-year deal so that he could hit the open market again soon after the NFL’s new TV deals kicked in. That would help him make up for being woefully underpaid at just over $1 million per year thus far. The Cowboys wanted a longer deal to help protect them from the rising costs of the QB market. Their final offer, a five-year contract at an average of $35 million doesn’t make much sense for Prescott to sign considering the franchise tag game would pay him $34.5 million on average over the next two seasons.
Because Prescott was given the exclusive tag in 2020, his base salary will be $31.4 million. Due to the CBA rule that a player tagged for a second time will make 120% of that salary, he stands to make $37.69 million in 2021. The total amount, $69.1 million is a lot of money. So much money, that the Cowboys don’t currently have the room to afford it.
Projecting the 2021 cap
The 2020 salary cap is set to $198.2 million. Normally, the cap goes up every year by about 6%, but there was an even bigger increase expected for 2021 thanks to adding a 17th game and the legalization of gambling. Even before the new TV deals kicked in (Monday Night Football in 2021, Sunday and Thursday packages in 2022), Over The Cap was projecting a $215 million cap in 2021.
With that number, the Cowboys — who have 55 players other than Prescott under contract in 2021 — only have $36.1 million of space for next year according to OTC.
They don’t currently have enough space to tag Prescott again; as soon as a player is tagged, that money is earkmarked on the cap.
Now, the team currently has just over $11 million in 2020 remaining cap space, some of that will carry over. The Cowboys will spend around $7.4 million on their rookies, but they will only need around $3.1 million of space as the rookies replace current players in the cap calculation. The club will also inevitably spend around $2 million – $4 million on in-season signings when others get injured. Penciling in a carryover of around $5 million seems a safe bet.
That would move Dallas to around $41 million in space, which would be enough to tag Prescott again, but not sign any free agents or rookies without cutting salary from somewhere else.
Possible, but not feasible and it would severely limit the club’s ability to retain their own players.
The 2021 free agent class is nothing like what 2020’s was (Prescott, Amari Cooper, Robert Quinn, Byron Jones, Maliek Collins and more). There are a few interesting names, though, such as safeties Xavier Woods and Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, linebacker Sean Lee, defensive tackles Antwaun Woods and Tyrone Crawford and cornerbacks Chidobe Awuzie and Jourdan Lewis.
The club would be crippled in trying to bring back any combination of those players without shaving money elsewhere.
Then there’s the elephant in the room.
2021 Salary Cap will likely be flattened, or lowered
The 2021 salary cap is not likely to be anywhere near $215 million.
Due to the coronavirus pandemic and teams already setting plans to operate with woefully empty, if not completely vacant, stadiums, there’s a real chance the salary cap doesn’t rise at all from the current $198.2 million.
There are even credible suggestions the cap could fall. The Cowboys already have $179 million in projected salaries for 2021. They would not be able to tag Prescott without lopping off some salaries to tag Prescott again.
And therein lies the problem with not reaching a long-term deal before Wednesday’s deadline.
The Cowboys can afford Prescott now, but can they next year?
And if they don’t work out a long-term agreement before the tag deadline closes (a few days after the cap is known and a few days before free agency begins), then there’s a possiblity Prescott will be set to walk in 2021.
Now, the Cowboys clearly have options in the worst-case scenario. There are players who can be released (Dontari Poe), but more players who could be restructured (Amari Cooper, DeMarcus Lawrence, Zack Martin) who would make some sense to create room.
But teams with their QB situation already worked out are going to have to consider such moves as gutting the mid-tier players on their payroll.
Dallas is going to be in a big predicament.
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