The NASCAR Cup Series moves to the Kentucky Speedway for the Quaker State 400 presented by Walmart. The green flag drops Sunday at 2:30 p.m. ET with the race televised on FOX Sports 1. Below, we analyze the Quaker State 400 odds and betting lines, with NASCAR picks and tips with odds from BetMGM sportsbook.
Quaker State 400: What you need to know
Odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 1:10 p.m. ET.
Sunday’s race at Kentucky Speedway will be the 10th installment since its NASCAR Cup Series debut race won by Joe Gibbs Racing driver Kyle Busch in 2011.
- Busch has won this race twice, the inaugural event in 2011, and again in 2015.
- Kyle’s older brother, Kurt Busch, won last season’s Kentucky race, starting from the fourth position. It was the first time a Chevrolet picked up checkers at Sparta, Ky., snapping a two-race win streak for Toyota.
- Penske Racing’s Brad Keselowski has won this race three times, leading all drivers in that category. JGR’s Martin Truex Jr. joins Keselowski and Kyle Busch as multiple winners. Truex drove to Victory Lane in back-to-back races in 2017 and ’18.
- Ganassi Racing’s Matt Kenseth, who finished second at Indianapolis Sunday, won the 2013 Kentucky race from the 16th starting position. He is the only winner in the nine-year history of the event to start outside of the top 10.
- Seven-time champ Jimmie Johnson, who had his streak of 663 consecutive starts snapped when a positive coronavirus test forced him to skip Indianapolis last week, will race Sunday. He tested negative on Monday and Tuesday, green-lighting his return to the Hendrick Motorsports No. 48 Chevrolet.
Who is going to win the Quaker State 400?
KYLE BUSCH (+650 for Sunday’s race) has had a surprisingly difficult season, failing to win any of the 16 races. However, he has three runner-up finishes and seven top-5 showings so far. He led 100 laps at Bristol on May 31, but a total of just 16 laps in the seven races since. Despite those struggles, he has dominated at Kentucky in the past.
Busch has three straight top-5 runs at Kentucky, and he leads all drivers with a 4.7 Average-Finish Position (AFP) in nine Kentucky starts. He has eight top-10 showings with two victories.
BRAD KESELOWSKI (+800) leads everyone with three wins in the first nine Kentucky races, including a win from the pole in 2014. Two of his past three starts at the track have been adventures, finishing 39th in 2017 and 20th last season. He is also second to Kyle Busch (621) with 524 laps led all time at the track.
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KEVIN HARVICK (+450) has won two of his past three races, including last week’s thriller at Indy. “Happy” went off the rails with a 22nd-place finish last season at Kentucky, but before that, he had a string of six consecutive top-10 showings. His 10.8 AFP in nine Kentucky starts is fourth-best among all active drivers.
Kentucky Speedway long-shot bets
ERIK JONES (+2500) is a tremendous value at this price as he has finishes of sixth, seventh and third in three-career Cup starts at the track. That third-place run came last season, and he is second to teammate Kyle Busch among active drivers in AFP at Kentucky (minimum three starts).
KURT BUSCH (+2000) won last season’s race at Kentucky, so why not again? He is fifth among active drivers with a 10.8 AFP in nine starts, including two top-5 runs, six top-10 showings and 137 laps led. Before his win last season, he was sixth in 2018. He now has four top-10 showings in his past five Kentucky starts. At this price he is a solid value and worth a small-unit wager.
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