One season after making a run to the AFC Championship Game, expectations are high for the Tennessee Titans, a team that has Super Bowl aspirations in 2020.
The Titans have finished each of the past four seasons with a 9-7 record, but sandwiched in with those lackluster regular season finishes has been three playoff wins, two of which came in 2019.
Pro Football Focus listed the best- and worst-case scenarios for the upcoming campaign for every team in the NFL, including the Titans — but we’ll start with the positive vibes first.
For their best-case scenario, PFF’s Ben Linsey has the Titans going 12-4.
90th percentile outcome: 12-4
How they get there: The same way they were winning over the second half of the 2019 season. A heavy dose of play action and success in the downfield passing game (with A.J. Brown as the primary target) leads a multi-faceted offense that can beat defenses through the air and on the ground with Henry — clock-chewer and one of the least desirable NFL players to tackle. Defensively, a talented secondary leads the way, with Adoree’ Jackson finally getting more credit for being the No. 1 cornerback that he is and rookie Kristian Fulton replacing Logan Ryan‘s production. The Titans are one of just three teams in the AFC to come out with a 90th percentile result at 12 wins or higher, showing they do have a ceiling if Tannehill delivers a similar performance to his 2019 showing.
For the worst-case scenario, Tennessee goes 7-9.
10th percentile outcome: 7-9
How they get there: The Ryan Tannehill 2019 outlier season giveth, but Tannehill’s 2020 season taketh away. The variance that produced one of the best quarterback seasons of 2019 swings the other way, leaving the offense without quite as much juice. It’s worth a reminder that Derrick Henry — as great as he was down the stretch — was not the reason for the Titans’ offensive revival. Tannehill was at the center of that with his 90.2 PFF grade, and the Titans’ 2020 season could be derailed if his play flips in the other direction (like we saw in his 45.3 overall grade with the Dolphins in 2018). The pass rush, or lack thereof, could also prove problematic unless players like Harold Landry and Jeffery Simmons progress in a big way.
The Titans’ record for the worst-case scenario speaks to how good PFF thinks this team can be in 2020, and it doesn’t come as much of a surprise, as the network picked the Titans to win the division back in June.
While 7-9 certainly isn’t an ideal result by any stretch, it’s a higher floor than the Titans’ AFC South rivals and the third-best worst-case scenario projection of any team on PFF’s list.
The Houston Texans (5-11), Indianapolis Colts (5-11) and Jacksonville Jaguars (4-12) all had lower floors in their worst-case scenarios laid out by PFF. For their best-case scenarios, the Colts and Texans both had 11 wins, while the Jags brought up the rear with nine.