For many reasons, the NBA’s restart plan could not have come at a worse time for the New Orleans Pelicans. While the team had a couple small stumbles in the final games leading up to the league halting, overall the Pelicans had established themselves as one of the hottest teams not just in the Western Conference but the league.
Likewise, the Memphis Grizzlies’ struggles down the stretch spelled even more good news for the Pelicans as they aimed for a playoff spot. But as everything came to a screeching stop, so many aspects of the season has changed. Gone is the positive momentum of the Pelicans and the negative momentum of Memphis while also allowing a team like the Blazers to return to full health.
In a piece on Thursday looking at the statistics and projections behind the league’s restart by FiveThirtyEight, the Pelicans came out as one of the biggest losers, unsurprisingly. According to FiveThirtyEight’s projections, prior to the break, the Pelicans had a 60 percent chance of making the playoffs. After the restart, the Pelicans had the largest drop-off with a 45 percent of making the playoffs.
Conversely, the Grizzlies saw their playoff odds jump from 15 percent before the break to 37 percent after the break. Interestingly, though, the Pelicans still have the best chance at making the playoffs. Virtually any realistic scenario where the Pelicans make the playoffs would at least include a play-in tournament and would often see them as the No. 9 seed. In that case, the Pelicans would need to beat the No. 8 seed, presumably Memphis, twice before the Grizzlies won once.
The Pelicans do have the easiest schedule of any team in the restart and are the only team where the opponents’ combined win percentage is sub-.500. It paints a very appealing picture to the Pelicans and their fans but still a daunting task for New Orleans.
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