If you are a football fan, you always hear the saying the NFL season really begins after thanksgiving. The weather becomes a factor, and teams have over 10 games worth of tape to study tendencies and schemes. It is where the pretenders display their true colors while the contenders thrive under pressure.
We have all seen many teams fall apart late in the year, and others get hot going into the playoffs. The perfect example last year was the Philadelphia Eagles. After starting the season 5-7, the Eagles rallied with four straight wins to end the season, leading to a playoff berth with Carson Wentz leading the way.
The Raiders, on the other hand, have continued to struggle late in the season with 2019 being another reminder. The team surprised the league, starting with a 6-4 record before the December stretch. They were one of the hottest teams in the league averaging 26.6 points per game from Week 4 to Week 10. After that came the collapse. The Raiders finish the season 1-5 going 1-4 in December, ending the year at 7-9.
While many factors have led to collapse like injuries to your starting running back and right tackle, it could also come down to coaching. December has not been too friendly to Jon Gruden throughout his career, and it hasn’t been any different since he returned to the silver and black.
Gruden has been known to have a hot start as a head coach and struggle to finish in the most crucial month. His record below tells a vast story.
September-November
86-27
December
20-35
Ouch!
That record in December truly exhibits how Gruden struggles late in the season, and it’s just not a 2019 Raiders issue. He has only had a winning record in December during three of his 13 seasons as a head coach. Fans might remember two of these falls coming during his first stint with the football team.
In 1998, the Raiders started 7-3 but finished the year at 8-8. Gruden gets a pass here, though, because when you have Wade Wilson taking quarterback snaps, it’s hard to keep the offense moving.
The most notable collapse was during the 2001 season. The Raiders started off 8-2 heading into December with a chance at home-field advantage. The Raiders finished 2-4, and the offense fell apart. After averaging 25.2 PPG during the first 11 games, they averaged 20.1 during the final six.
The last four games were an ugly 15.5 PPG, and the Raiders lost home field and allowed the New England Patriots to win that honor. And we know what followed after that, and Gruden was traded to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
This trend crept back up with the Buccaneers. The season when he was fired in 2008, the Buccaneers were off to a 9-3 start to begin the season. They went on to lose the last four games, sending Gruden to the broadcast booth for the next ten years.
Why does this continue to happen? One of the factors is predictability.
Going back to 2001, I watched the week 14 matchup against the San Diego Chargers. The Raiders were the clear favorites to win that game, averaging 28 PPG and Rich Gannon with a rating of 101.5 leading the NFL.
The Raiders struggled to move the ball against an average Chargers defense going three and out on three straight drives during the game. The Chargers were sitting on the short routes, making it tough for Rich Gannon to get into a rhythm. The one touchdown was one of the only deep shots in the game was a 40-yard touchdown to Jerry Rice.
Jerry Rice breaking ankles at 39 🐐🐐 pic.twitter.com/NC4JPXgGpn
— Marc John (@TheMarcJohnNFL) June 29, 2020
Gannon’s production took a dive during the last four games as well. He went into Week 14, leading the league in passer rating and only five interceptions. He went on to throw four during the next four games tanking his passer rating while the Raiders struggled to move the football.
2019 the offense was hot going into the home stretch but were striving on a predictable mindset to their play calling. The Raiders were running on first down 63 percent of the time at five yards per carry during the first 11 weeks.
That dropped to only 3.8 yards per carry from Week 12-17, according to Sharp Football Stats. What this means is opposing defenses started to exclusively play the run on first down, causing negative plays putting the offense behind on drives.
Adjustments are a key to coaching and are an item that Gruden continues to struggle with. For the Raiders to take the next step and actually become contenders in the AFC, he has to find a way to win games in December.
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