When we learned that former Panthers quarterback Cam Newton has agreed to a one-year deal with the Patriots, we wrote that it made them the favorites to win the AFC East again, pushing the Carolina North Bills out of the way. Now, we’ve got some data to back that claim up.
According to an analysis by Pro Football Focus, signing Newton does indeed make New England the team to beat in the division once again.
“After projecting the Patriots to win 7.7 games with Jarrett Stidham playing quarterback, we project them to win 8.2 games after the change to Cam Newton. Half a win isn’t a lot, mainly because of the already-mentioned health issues and the fact that his supporting cast is still not ideal, which narrows the larger gap in true ability between Stidham and Newton. Nevertheless, this is enough to make the Patriots the favorite to win the division … again.”
Half a win over Stidham does seem a bit low. However, let’s keep in mind that PFF’s numbers were modeled on Newton’s recent performances when he was playing hurt. As they mentioned in the article, a fully healthy Newton will give them a significantly better chance to win over the current model.
Remember, Newton was injured for the two games he should not have played in 2019 and the entire second half of the 2018 season. Prior to that, Cam was playing arguably better than he had his entire career, including when he won the MVP award in 2015.
Newton’s 2017 season has been mostly forgotten, but he doesn’t get enough credit for carrying a pretty mediocre team to an 11-5 record. His performance against the Saints in the wild card game (despite the loss) was a masterpiece and a perfect example of how difficult he is to defend when he’s on top of his game.
Cam picked up where he left off the next season. In the eight games before his shoulder injury in 2018, Newton was operating at the peak of his powers. If you have any instinct to doubt he can still lead a dynamic offense, watch him during those eight games, especially Weeks 6-8.
If the Patriots are getting that Cam Newton, they may just give the Ravens and the Chiefs a run for their money in the AFC playoffs.
Newton won’t have many weapons to work with in New England – the 34-year old Julian Edelman will be his best wide receiver and they have no talent at tight end to speak of. However, it wouldn’t be the first time Newton has had to make do with a bad supporting cast. In any case, the Patriots have an elite defense and the most accomplished coaching staff in the league. If they can’t produce a serious contender with Newton on their roster nobody can.
[lawrence-related id=625965]
[vertical-gallery id=625974]