Bill Belichick benefited from Tom Brady’s greatness for two decades, just as Brady benefited from Belichick’s genius for the same amount of time. Now that Brady is firmly ensconced in Tampa, Belichick has the ability to make a gigantic paradigm shift at the game’s most important position should he choose to do so.
Before the news came down Sunday that Cam Newton had signed a one-year, incentive-laden deal with Belichick’s team, the Patriots’ quarterback depth chart consisted of Jarrett Stidham and … well, Jarrett Stidham. That’s the same Jarrett Stidham who was selected in the fourth round of the 2019 draft and has thrown four regular-season passes, completing two to his own guys and one to Jets safety Jamal Adams. Adams returned that interception for a 61-yard touchdown, which means that Stidham has thrown more touchdown passes for the Jets than he has for the Patriots.
That, friends, was the walking definition of a low-yield return on investment. Unless the Pats are #TankingForTrevor, that ain’t gonna feed the bulldog.
You could not have expected Belichick to stand pat on that, no matter how much the coaching staff allegedly likes Stidham’s potential. There isn’t anybody alive who knows and understands more about the history of football strategy than the Patriots’ head coach. He’s seen every trend come down the pike since he was a special assistant for Ted Marchibroda’s Baltimore Colts in 1975. Belichick’s football library is legendary for its depth and breadth. And most recently, he’s seen an NFL in which, in terms of opponent-adjusted efficiency, four of the league’s top five quarterbacks are black, all of them are mobile, and each of them brings different characteristics to his passing game.
It’s a remarkable (one might say overdue) definition of the current NFL, and given Belichick’s understanding of history and insistence on personnel diversity at all positions, Newton’s place on the roster is also a fascinating thought exercise to wonder how his Patriots will look going all the way from Brady’s stationary brilliance to an offense in which a Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes or Russell Wilson might be his most valuable instrument. And in fact, the Patriots were in on Jackson in 2018 to a point.
Newton, the 2015 NFL MVP, was a free agent after two injury-riddled seasons that had the Panthers moving on to Teddy Bridgewater. Given the inability of teams to get precise physicals in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic, Newton had to wait a while to prove his health — and his worth — to a new team.
More specifically, Belichick wouldn’t have an issue remembering Newton’s worth. He had all kinds of things to say about it in the early parts of the 2017 season.
The Patriots had just come off a 36-33 win over the Texans in which then-rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson completed 22 of 33 passes for 301 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions, in addition to running eight times for 41 yards. Brady’s 25-yard touchdown pass to wide receiver Brandin Cooks with 23 seconds remaining was the deciding score, and the Pats had to feel a bit lucky to get out of Gillette Stadium with a win. Next up were Newton’s Panthers, and on the Wednesday before that game, Belichick was asked about preparing from one mobile quarterback with explosive play potential to another.
“I think when you’re talking about mobile quarterbacks — guys that are tough to handle, can throw, run, make good decisions. I would put [Newton] at the top of the list. Not saying there aren’t a lot of other good players that do that, but I would say of all the guys we played recently in the last couple of years, I think he’s the hardest guy to [defend]. He makes good decisions, can run. He’s strong. He’s hard to tackle. He can do a lot of different things. He can beat you in a lot of different ways. We saw that in the game in 2013. I would put him at the top of the list. I’m not saying the other guys aren’t a problem, because they are. But he’s maybe public enemy No. 1.”
Newton proved the title true in a 33-30 Panthers win by completing 22 of 29 passes for 316 yards, three touchdowns and one interception, rushing eight times for 44 yards and another touchdown. The Patriots’ usually disciplined defense had no consistent answers for Newton’s brilliance on that day.
Which brings us to the primary arguments against a Newton-Patriots pairing: Newton’s health and the scheme fit.
Regarding Newton’s health, there’s no way for any team to know for sure where he is in his progress from shoulder and foot injuries until he can take a physical and work out in a team facility. And we have no clue when that might be. But based on what I saw of Newton’s tape early last season before that foot injury shut him down, there’s still a lot he has to offer.
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On to scheme fit, and the myth that a quarterback of Newton’s specific skill set couldn’t handle the complexity of a Patriots passing game. One of the primary arguments for any other free agent quarterback’s hypothetical inclusion on the Patriots’ roster is that Dalton “understands the system.” But if that’s the bar you want anybody to clear, Newton has the decided advantage, while Dalton should head to Jacksonville, where his former Bengals head coach, Jay Gruden, is the Jaguars’ offensive coordinator. Dalton and Gruden worked different strains of the West Coast offense, which is a different deal — not always in play design, but definitely in structure and terminology.
Meanwhile, from 2012 through 2019, under multiple offensive coordinators, Newton worked different iterations of the Erhardt-Perkins offense the Patriots have used through Belichick’s entire tenure in Foxborough. Concepts change to a point, but the overall ideas, route packages and verbiage would be more natural for Newton to pick up. This is important because if you’ve got an abbreviated install period due to obvious ancillary factors that are shortening every team’s ability to prepare with their new players, and your new quarterback understands where his third read is on “1 Out — 147 Z Option XQ Sneak,”and how the second receiver is going to run his option route based on whether the middle of the field is closed or open, you are definitely ahead of the game.
On to Newton’s 2017 performance against the Patriots and what it might tell us about his future.