(In this series, Touchdown Wire’s Mark Schofield takes a look at one important metric per NFL team to uncover a crucial problem to solve for the 2020 season. In this installment, it’s time to look at why play-action passing is an area to watch with the Green Bay Packers in 2020).
Matt LaFleur and the Green Bay Packers have a vision for their offense as the future unfolds.
That vision was unveiled during the 2020 NFL Draft and afterward, as the offensive-minded head coach addressed the media during the draft process. First, their decisions. The Packers, bucking conventional wisdom, drafted quarterback Jordan Love in the first round, not the wide receiver weapon fro Aaron Rodgers as so many expected.
Then, the Packers continued to add on the offensive side of the football but not at receiver. They drafted running back A.J. Dillon out of Boston College, and then added tight end/H-Back Josiah Deguara out of the University of Cincinnati.
It was the Deguara selection that pointed the way.
“I love Josiah,” LaFleur said on a conference call with media members. “He is extremely versatile. The thing he brings to our offense is, we can be in the same personnel grouping and we can line him up on the line of scrimmage or in a wing alignment or in the backfield. I think that adds stress on the defense. When you watch Josiah, you see such a gritty, tough player.”
Driving the point home for the future of the offense, LaFleur added this: “We will try and emulate some that stuff in terms of how the 49ers use (Kyle) Juszczyk,”
So the vision? More 21 offensive personnel. The San Francisco 49ers used that personnel grouping more than any other team last year, implementing it on 28% of their plays, or 312 snaps. How often the 49ers use this package was the focus of our “Metrics that Matter” installment on San Francisco, as a matter of fact.
Another aspect of the 49ers’ offense that flows naturally from this is play-action passing. Prior to the arrival of LaFleur, play-action passing was a weak spot in the Packers’ offense.
One of my favorite days each summer is “Play-Action Day” over at Football Outsiders. Sometime during the summer doldrums, FO releases their play-action passing data from the previous NFL campaign. On that day I love diving into the data and seeing who made most of these designs, which some have equated to the NFL’s live-action version of a cheat code.
Football Outsiders uses their Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) metric to see which teams see a boost in their offensive production when using play-action, opposed to what teams are stagnant – or even see a dip in production – when they use such schemes.
In 2018 the Packers were dreadful using play-action. First off, they hardly used play-action designs, as only 20% of their offensive plays in 2018 were such calls. This was good for just 20th overall in the league. Now when you see the results, you might understand. On straight dropbacks (plays without play-action) the Packers posted a passing DVOA of 27.6%, which was sixth-best in the league.
When they employed play-action? Their DVOA plummeted to just 2.7%, which was ranked 25th in the league. Their DVOA difference of -22.6% was ranked 29th in the league.
These numbers were also reflected in Rodgers’ production – or lack thereof – on play-action plays. In 2018 Rodgers saw his completion percentage fall by 1.1% when using play-action versus a traditional dropback design. Furthermore, his Yards Per Attempt fell from 7.5 when using a traditional dropback, to 7.1 when using play-action. That dip in completion percentage of 1.1% was the sixth-most in the league, and the dropoff in YPA tied him for last in the league with Mitchell Trubisky. In 2018, those two NFC North passers were the only quarterbacks to see a drop in YPA when moving from a traditional dropback design to a play-action concept.
It probably goes without saying, but when you’re in a category with Mitchell Trubisky it might not be the best news…
Last year, however, under LaFleur the Packers made more use of play-action, and the results translated to the field and the stat sheet. While in 2018 play-action concepts composed just 20.1% of Rodgers’ passing plays, that number jumped a bit to 26.1% in 2019. That moved the veteran quarterback from 19th in the league among qualified passers (defined as those who attempted 50% of their teams passes) and second-to-last to 12th in the league. A not insignificant move.
Furthermore, Rodgers’ production on these plays was much improved. In 2019 his completion percentage was 5.0% better on play-action plays as opposed to traditional dropbacks (placing him 10th in the league) and his YPA was an increase of 0.4 on play-action plays.
What does this translate to on tape? The Packers this season have been able to attack both downfield in the vertical passing game, as well as underneath, with Rodgers throwing off of play-action. On this 2nd and 5 play from Green Bay’s Week 10 victory over the Carolina Panthers, Rodgers hits wide receiver Davante Adams along the right sideline on a go route, working off a play-fake:
However, one of the ways the Packers implement play-action the most is off of zone fakes in the boot action game. For example, earlier in their victory over the Panthers Rodgers aligns under center, and fakes an outside zone running play to the right side of the formation. He then boots back to the left, throwing underneath to a receiver crossing across the formation with him:
In the regular season the Packers were blown out by the 49ers, but the play-action designs were still part of their gameplan. On this throw from their scripted portion of the game, Rodgers again uses a boot-action design:
These types of plays cater to Rodgers’ athletic ability and desire to make plays outside the pocket, and as the numbers indicate, Rodgers was able to be more productive in 2019 using play-action designs.
If the offense is moving to a more 21 personnel oriented, play-action heavy offense like San Francisco’s, how Rodgers performs when using play-action is a critical metric to watch in 2020.