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One of the things we commonly stress when looking at the 2020 Cincinnati Bengals is proper expectations.
Historically speaking, teams that win two games in a season don’t recoup a ton of those losses the year after.
But could the Bengals be an exception to the rule?
The Athletic’s Sheil Kapadia provided some important historical context:
“Over the last 20 years, teams have won two or fewer games in a season 25 times. On average, those teams improved by four games the following year. But there were five instances — the 2008 Dolphins, the 2012 Colts, the 2013 Chiefs, the 2014 Texans and the 2018 Browns — when the team improved by seven games or more. It’s not crazy to think the Bengals, who went 2-14 last season, could join that group.”
Indeed — not crazy to think these Bengals could do it.
These Bengals, after all, had one of the NFL’s most-injured rosters last year. It came at a time a younger, late-assembled coaching staff was trying to teach its new systems. The coaching staff inherited the last staff’s roster and didn’t get to make a ton of changes. Stars like A.J. Green were out and so was promising first-round tackle Jonah Williams.
On paper, the Bengals hope to have all the injured key contributors back. They just drafted one of the best quarterbacks to enter the NFL in modern history with Joe Burrow. And the front office let the coaching staff dramatically overhaul the roster in free agency, netting big wins like D.J. Reader while shedding some of the old guard like Andy Dalton and Dre Kirkpatrick.
Even last year amid the chaos, four of the team’s losses came by four or fewer points. Better luck in general, better injury luck, a second season in new systems, better line play, better quarterback play — better everything, really — should easily translate to a notable gain in the win column, all while playing a schedule that should be softer than usual after a fourth-place finish.
This isn’t advocating for the Bengals as a playoff contender by any means. But an aggressive offseason with key circumstances hint at the Bengals having a bigger turnaround than numbers might typically suggest.
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