(In this series, Touchdown Wire’s Mark Schofield takes a look at one important metric per NFL team to uncover a crucial problem to solve for the 2020 season. In this installment, it’s time to look at how the Philip Rivers fared when pressured in 2019, and why that might be a concern for the Los Angeles Chargers in 2020).
The 2018-2019 football season seems like a lifetime ago.
If you close your eyes and think about it, you can probably remember how that NFL campaign unfolded. It ended with the New England Patriots hoisting another Lombardi Trophy, but along the way fans of the league were treated to the explosive first season as a starting quarterback from Patrick Mahomes, the debut of Lamar Jackson, and Sean McVay’s genius.
There was also another effort from Philip Rivers and the Los Angeles Chargers that ended up short.
During the veteran quarterback’s time out west, he became a darling of many fans and members of football media alike. Whether it was his expressive nature on the field, his ugly duckling manner of playing the position, or his performance in the 2007 AFC Championship Game, playing on the road against the Patriots with a torn ACL, Rivers grew to be a favorite of many.
The Chargers went toe-to-toe with the Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs that season, falling just short in the AFC West despite a 12-4 record. That tied them with the Chiefs atop the division, but Kansas City took the tiebreaker. Their reward for sliding to the fifth spot in the playoffs? A trip east on Wild Card Weekend to take on Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens.
After winning that game, they faced a second trip east. Back to Foxborough to take on Tom Brady and the Patriots. There, the Chargers’ ride ended.
There were many reasons for the Chargers’ success that season, despite losing in the Divisional Round of the playoffs. Many could point to the success of their defense, particularly their defensive front. During the regular season, the Chargers tallied 39 total sacks, but a majority of those – 27 to be exact – came when they brought just four pass rushers. With players like Joey Bosa, Melvin Ingram, Issac Rochell and Uchenna Nwosu, along with a potential blitzer in Derwin James, the Chargers could get pressure with minimal rushers, allowing them to play with a numbers advantage in the secondary.
On the offensive side of the football, there was another reason for success: The play of their veteran quarterback when pressured. That year Rivers was one of the more impressive quarterbacks when facing a collapsing pocket, and both numbers and film bore that out. That year, according to charting data from Pro Football Focus, Rivers was pressured on 192 dropbacks, 12th most in the league. What did he do on those plays? He completed 90 of 156 passes for 1,218 yards and eight touchdowns, against six interceptions. Those yardage numbers were the fifth-most from a passer when pressured that year. Rivers also had an Adjusted Completion Percentage of 71.6% when pressured, fifth-best in the league.
That ability to handle pressure – to remain “calm in the cauldron” – also showed up on film. If you have a spare seven minutes, you can watch this video breakdown of Rivers handling pressure:
Then last year happened.
This is not to say that Rivers was abysmal against pressure, but he did take a step back. Last season the quarterback was pressured on 225 dropbacks, a slight increase over the 2018 numbers, but his performance dipped. Rivers completed 95 of 189 passes for 1,43 yards (the most in the league), nine touchdowns and nine interceptions. His Adjusted Completion Percentage came in at 65.3%, good enough for tenth in the league but a drop from his 2018 numbers.
In these “Metrics that Matter” pieces the argument that sacks/pressures are a quarterback has been advanced. The 2019 Chargers are no different. Before one goes about making the case that the team needs to be better up front to protect their quarterback, consider this. According to ESPN’s Pass Block Win Rate statistic, the Chargers’ offensive line won their blocking assignments 45% of the time. That was good for the 11th-best offensive line performance in 2019.
So, just that slight dip in quarterback performance under pressure, even with solid OL play, saw the team struggle.
Here’s why that matters.
Barring a move for an available quarterback – say, Cam Newton – the Chargers are going to begin the 2020 campaign with either veteran Tyrod Taylor or rookie Justin Herbert taking the snaps.
How do those quarterbacks fare when pressured?
During his last season at Oregon, Herbert was one of the more inconsistent quarterbacks in the draft class when it came to his performance from clean pockets versus collapsing pockets. When kept clean, PFF charted him with the “highest accurate pass rate in the 2020 draft class throwing 20-plus yards downfield.”
When pressured?
PFF described the incoming rookie passer as “increasingly volatile.”
Among 129 qualifying quarterbacks this season, Herbert ranked 124th in negatively graded play rate under pressure. You can see his panic in a collapsing pocket, an area where a first-round quarterback really shouldn’t be losing his poise. He’ll try and create outside of the structure but will toss up some desperation heaves and, in turn, produced the 47th best accurate-pass rate among 66 qualifying quarterbacks.
As for Taylor?
The last time we saw a full sample size from him, the 2017 season when he led the Buffalo Bills to the playoffs, Taylor was pressured on 193 dropbacks. In those moments, he completed 70 of 130 passes for 957 yards and two touchdowns, with just one interception. His Adjusted Completion Percentage of 65.2% – closely resembling what Rivers posted in 2019 – was 12th in the league.
In 2018, when he was with the Cleveland Browns, Taylor appeared in just four games before giving way to Baker Mayfield. In that limited action he was pressured on 42 dropbacks. He completed seven of 24 passes for 58 yards, and an Adjusted Completion Percentage of 47.1%.
Playing when pressured is part of life as a quarterback in the NFL. How the passer handles that pressure can mean the difference between a run in the playoffs, and watching them from your couch. Rivers posted an Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt of 7.79 during the 2018 campaign, which was good for fourth in the league. The following year, when his numbers under pressure dipped? That number slid to 6.32, 15th in the league.
The Chargers, like every other team, will need a quarterback who can handle pressure in the pocket. Their two options for 2020? That has not been their strong suit.