We appear to be heading toward yet another ‘make-or-break’ season for Derek Carr. I saw that situation going into last season. And the result was the Raiders signing a legitimate contender for the starting job in Marcus Mariota. What they have not yet done is officially move on from Carr. Jason Fitzgerald from OverTheCap sees that situation on the horizon.
Fitzgerald devoted a large portion of his podcast today to the Raiders, and a large portion of that was spent on the quarterback situation.
As a Jets fan, Fitzgerald is very familiar with Bill Parcells, with whom he sees a lot of similar traits in Jon Gruden. He also sees a lukewarm relationship between Gruden and Carr.
“I don’t know if Gruden is in love with Carr. I don’t know if he’s in love, but much like Parcells with his quarterbacks, he would kind of fall in and out of love with his quarterbacks, he would tolerate them more than anything else. I almost think that’s what Gruden does here. He tolerates Carr. Doesn’t hate him, doesn’t dislike him. You can get on the bad side of these guys and you’re done… Vindictive I guess would be the word. And Gruden falls into that same category…”
In an article I put together this offseason, I said that pussyfooting around the Derek Carr situation is simply not an option for the Raiders. That is to say, if they aren’t sold on him as the guy who can take him to the promised land, they need to move on. Fitzgerald said similar.
“I think with Carr, at some point they’re going to make the decision that either they can get to the playoffs with him or they’re just going to have to completely move on. And I kind of lean towards them looking to move on.”
Contributing to this line of thinking is the Raiders cap situation next year, which is not great. OTC has them with the fourth-worst cap situation in 2021 with about $20 set to be available, which means some tough decisions are coming.
“They’d almost be in a position where they’d have to screw up their future salary cap by restructuring contracts, or cut a lot of players where in a sense that puts you back into the developmental aspect of your program. So, I wouldn’t consider them to be in a great position.”
No players would free up more money than Carr. Cutting or trading him would free up some $20 million in cap space, which would really come in handy. On the other hand, Mariota’s deal is quite favorable.
“I like their deal with Mariota a lot. I thought it was a nice way to bring in a high potential guy… I like this one. They got him for two years, not a ton guaranteed. Yeah, there’s incentives in there if he starts and wins the Super Bowl, but you’d be happy if that happens. That’s probably my favorite contract on the team, actually.”
This means that even if Mariota and Carr were seen on equal footing, Mariota’s deal makes him better value. He’s also a better fit for Gruden’s offense as well as being someone Gruden *chose*. He inherited Carr.
“The ideal situation for them, if they are going to move on from Carr is that they have the confidence that they can bring in Mariota as a starter, who’s going to make about $10 million next year. And maybe there would be some incentives if he plays this year, let’s say he has the Tannehill season, you’d be looking at maybe a $10-$15 million cap hit based on incentives if it bumped up to there. And you’d have your starting quarterback at basically half the salary of anybody else in the NFL, and you’d free up $19 million on Carr. That is probably a better alternative than Carr having the same kind of year he typically has and you create $10 million in cap space dumping Mariota and you have Carr sitting there at $22 million. That’s just not going to give you the flexibility and the leeway you need to really improve the roster.”
“If they don’t take a step forward, I think they have to move on. Even if Carr has a decent season, but you’ve seen a ceiling that’s there, I think you have to move on. There might be some trade value that Carr has, I’m not really sure there would be a lot, but if there is not improvement there, the Raiders would probably be at a point where they would be better off with Mariota at that kind of price . . . then get into the draft to let Gruden pick his quarterback that he wants. And let Gruden sink or swim with that guy.”
Carr or Mariota may be the only options for the Raiders this year, but they aren’t necessarily the only options in 2021. A big name could come available in trade. One Aaron Rodgers.
“[Rodgers] would cost $22 million, so basically if you cut Derek Carr and you traded for Aaron Rodgers it would basically be a swap of salary cap numbers. You’d be adding a little bit more, but I’m sure you’d be losing Mariota too.”
Now, of course, the Carr-stans out there will just say Fitzgerald is a hater or suggest he’s looking for clicks. But, like many of us, at one time he thought highly of Carr’s prospects. That time is fading farther and farther into the rearview.
“I liked Carr a lot when he was first starting in the league and I was a big proponent of him winning MVP and all that kind of stuff. But great quarterbacks find their way into the playoffs at some point in time. He’s just not doing that. They’ve done it one time. I think that’s a big reason people are down on him. . . If you can’t find your way to have that team success around you, and you get past a certain point in your career, people are going to point to you as one of the reasons why.”
If you’d like to listen to the entire thing, you can below. He begins the Raiders portion at the 51:30 mark.
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