The 49ers’ receiving corps is perhaps the biggest question mark on their roster going into the 2020 season. Their group is full of talented, but unproven players who haven’t been reliable NFL players yet.
One player they’ll turn to to anchor their receiving corps is second-year wide receiver Deebo Samuel. He was their leading receiver in 2019 and had a slew of numbers that indicate he’s on track to be very good again in his second season. However, there’s another stat that needs to improve if he’s going to reach the NFL’s top tier.
While the receiving and rushing totals were impressive during his rookie year, the number that jumps out most for Samuel is his 10 drops from last season. That tied him for second-most in the league, and his 14.9 percent drop rate was fourth-worst in the NFL according to Pro Football Focus.
While drops are a concern, Samuel’s productivity despite those drops displays the level he’s capable of reaching when he cleans up that area of his game.
He ranked seventh in catch rate at 74 percent. He was 10th in the NFL in passer rating when targeted at 120.2 per PFF.
If Samuel cut his drops in half last year, his catch rate skyrockets to 80.5 percent – good for second in the league. If he slashed the drops to just three, his catch rate balloons to a league-best 83.1 percent.
Given what Samuel does with the ball in his hands — a catch rate up over 80 percent would be a boon to his overall production. Five to seven more catches could mean 100-plus additional yards. Not to mention the offensive benefits of extended drives and more scoring opportunities.
The way San Francisco uses Samuel could change some this year with more targets down the field. That itself could bring his catch rate down some, but the targets should increase, so diminishing outright drops is still vital. If Samuel can bring his drop rate down while his target share inflates, he’ll be in a position to be a bonafide No. 1 receiver in one of the NFL’s best offenses.
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