Today, the NFL sent out the specific language on the rule change proposed by the Philadelphia Eagles that would allow teams to attempt to convert a 4th-and-15 situation as an alternative to an onside kick, giving us the full picture of what to expect if teams approve of the change.
With the onside kick-recovery rate plummeting since the league implemented new kickoff rules to make the play safer, the need for an alternative was clear even after just one season. Last offseason, the Denver Broncos proposed a rule that is similar to the one the Eagles are proposing this offseason but it was tabled. A year later, it’s looking like the rule will be adopted.
Here’s what Philadelphia is proposing, which will be reviewed during a virtual meeting on Thursday…
Clubs received updated language on the proposed onside kick alternative that (as @AlbertBreer noted) clarifies it can only be used in regulation, not overtime, and is an untimed down. Also note the language on post-score penalties. Virtual meeting tomorrow. pic.twitter.com/NWrbrazEuz
— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) May 27, 2020
The tl;dr: Teams can attempt it only twice in regulation. It’s an untimed down, so teams leading late can’t use it to milk the clock. Penalties and procedures apply to the down.
The big change from the Broncos’ proposal is the spot of the ball. Denver proposed having the play take place from the 35-yard-line, which is the spot of a kickoff. This proposal will have the ball spotted at the 25 instead.
I believe the change is based on the suggestion from NFL Operations, which posted an article covering the key statistics that apply to the change last year.
“Although Denver suggested the 35-yard line — the same as where teams kick off — teams that pick up first downs on scrimmage plays typically gain more yards than just the line to gain. Teams converting on fourth-and-14 to fourth-and-16 typically end up eight yards past the line to gain when they convert. Our suggestion then — and the yard line that we’re testing at Pro Bowl — will push offensive teams back 10 yards to their own 25-yard line.”
I don’t know how much sense that makes. Yes, teams can gain yardage without converting, pushing the opposing team back; but the same is true for onside kick recoveries, which typically occur 10 yards from the spot of the kick. I don’t see a difference there. Why are incentivizing teams to NOT go for more of these onside kick alternative plays.
NFL Operations also suggested that 4th-and-15 “is slightly more forgiving than the onside kick” based on historical recovery and conversion rates. According to the article, the historic onside recovery rate is 13.2% and the conversion rate on 3rd- and 4th-and-15 plays is 16.8%. But that recovery rate includes data from after the kickoff changes. That same article also reveals this:
Kicking teams historically recovered onside kicks between 15% and 20% of the time in a given season. In 2018, in part to changes on the kickoff play, that number dropped below 10%.
So that 16.8% conversion rate does seem to fall in line with the old recovery rates, which is where we’re trying to get back to.
When I ran the numbers myself, with the help of Pro Football Reference’s play index, I got an even higher conversion rate. But I used different filters: I looked at only plays that took place after 2005, when changes to the illegal contact rule were implemented and made passing easier. I filtered out run plays and looked only at pass plays by teams that were trailing in the fourth quarter to account for teams that were willing to throw a checkdown and keep the clock moving. And to account for defenses adjusting their coverages to prevent offenses from getting into field goal range, I filtered out plays that took place past the offense’s 45-yard-line.
That criteria gave me a sample size of 481 plays. The conversion rate for those plays, which includes first downs as a result of penalties, was 18.9% from 2005 to 2019.
That sounds a little high, but … who cares?
Sports are meant to be fun and more conversions will lead to more exciting finishes. If anything, this rule doesn’t go far enough. Make it even easier to convert these plays and turn blowouts into tight finishes. People will complain about the integrity of the sport initially, but once we start getting wild finishes to games, you won’t hear a peep.