Every year, ESPN releases its team rankings based on the Football Power Index (FPI), and this year the Tennessee Titans find themselves in the middle of the pack among the rest of the teams in the NFL.
In a nutshell, ESPN explains its FPI model like this:
At its core, NFL FPI is a prediction system for the NFL. Each team’s FPI rating is composed of a predicted offensive, defensive and special teams efficiency, as measured by expected points added per play, and that rating is the basis for FPI’s game-level and season-level projections.
In its 2020 version, ESPN ranks the Titans at No. 16, with a projected win total of 8.4 and a 55 percent chance to make the playoffs.
When compared to their AFC South rivals, the Titans are the second-highest ranked team in the division. Here’s how the rest of the division stacks up.
14. Indianapolis Colts | Projected wins: 8.6 | Playoff chance: 58%
16. Tennessee Titans | Projected wins: 8.4 | Playoff chance: 55%
24. Houston Texans | Projected wins: 7.6 | Playoff chance: 38%
32. Jacksonville Jaguars | Projected wins: 4.9 | Playoff chance: 4%
While we would like to see the Titans get a bit more respect after a season in which the team made it to the AFC Championship Game, flying under the radar isn’t necessarily a bad thing.
And, at least Tennessee didn’t get hit as hard as Houston and Jacksonville did in ESPN’s FPI rankings. The Jags are the favorites to be in position to land the assumed No. 1 quarterback in next year’s draft, Trevor Lawrence.
Should the Titans be the highest-ranked team in the division? Probably, but the difference between Tennessee and Indianapolis is razor thin.
According to ESPN’s FPI, the Colts and Titans are No. 1 and No. 2 on the list of the easiest strength of schedules.
As I’ve stated before, I disagree with Tennessee’s schedule being one of the easiest, as the Titans play six games against five 2019 playoff teams, and have a handful of other games against tough teams that are on the rise.
Calculating strength of schedule is inherently flawed, no matter if you use last year’s win totals or Vegas over/under win totals. The league changes so much year-to-year that it’s impossible to get a truly accurate reading.
Here’s how ESPN’s FPI tries to avoid those faulty strength of schedule methods.
Though FPI is heavily reliant on preseason win totals, it teases out team ratings and therefore can calculate schedule strength without really running into any of those problems.
Despite what should be a tough slate overall for the reasons I mentioned, the Titans could realistically emerge from it at 10-6, finally getting over that 9-7 hump.
[lawrence-related id=35072,34880,35015]
[vertical-gallery id=33528]