Throughout the entire offseason, the Indianapolis Colts had their eyes on one particular player in the 2020 NFL Draft. Their dreams came true when he was available with the No. 34 overall pick.
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Wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. checks every box the Colts have been looking for in a wide receiver prospect. He should slide right into the WR2 role behind T.Y. Hilton and even though growing pains should be expected for the rookie, he still has a clear path to production as the X-receiver in the Colts.
>>>T.Y. Hilton’s 2020 projections<<<
>>>Jonathan Taylor’s 2020 projections<<<
Pittman Jr. is the exact type of wide receiver Philip Rivers loves to target. Whether its downfield making contested catches or underneath as a reliable possession receiver, Pittman Jr. fits the mold of historically successful wide receivers who have worked with Rivers.
While these projections might be a bit on the conservative side, here are the early numbers for Pittman Jr. in 2020:
| Targets | Rec. | Yards | TDs | Yds/Rec. | Target Share | Catch Rate |
| 90 | 60 | 726 | 6 | 12.1 | 16% | 67% |
Targets: This number might seem a little high, but it’s certainly attainable for Pittman. At just a 16% target share, Pittman could see 90 targets, especially if the Colts throw more than I am projecting. Since 2015, there have been 19 wide receivers to see at least 81 targets in their first season. 14 of them were drafted on Day 2 or earlier. Pittman Jr. has the opportunity, talent and skill set to be targeted with solid volume in his rookie season—even if it will be capped due to the presence of T.Y. Hilton.
Receptions: One of the best features about Pittman Jr. coming out of USC was his hands. Compare it to Spider-Man’s ability to stick to nearly any surface imaginable. Pittman Jr. posted a catch rate of 74.3% in 2019. Furthermore, he dropped only 2.8% of catchable targets thrown his way in college, per Pro Football Focus. Adjusting for the change in opponent’s skill in the league and a 67% catch rate is easily attainable—one could argue that might his floor.
Touchdowns: Where this number falls will be the debate of projecting Pittman Jr.’s rookie campaign. He’s a big body, which means Rivers can target him in the red zone. That alone has enough merit to warrant a higher number. There have been 21 wide receivers since 2014 to post at least six touchdown receptions during their rookie season. It’s certainly possible for Pittman Jr. here if he can gain the trust of Rivers quickly.
Target Share: The Colts will be an offense that likes to spread the ball around to various targets. With T.Y. Hilton leading the way with a 21% target share, Pittman Jr. actually came in with the second-highest total at 16%. That’s a strong number for a rookie campaign, but the Colts are enamored with his fit in the offense and skill set to work on the boundary. Couple that with Rivers’ affinity for targeting this type of wide receiver, and Pittman Jr. could see a strong market share of the receiving offense.
Conclusion
Pittman Jr. is in a perfect situation to make an immediate impact. He may not have an Odell Beckham Jr. or Michael Thomas type of impact in his rookie season, but he should be in line for a productive campaign. There is a clear path for Pittman Jr. as the WR2 and X-receiver working on the boundary. Being a second-round pick helps his cause and his skillset blends perfectly with that of Rivers. There might be more productive rookie wide receivers in Year 1, but this would be a great start for the USC product.
Point Projections
PPR: 168.6
Half-PPR: 138.6
Non-PPR: 108.6
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