With the arrival of a new quarterback in the form of veteran Philip Rivers, the Indianapolis Colts are expecting a bounce-back season from their biggest playmaker on the offensive side of the ball in wide receiver T.Y. Hilton.
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Currently one of the top early values according to average draft position (ADP) in fantasy football, Hilton is line to have a strong campaign as long as his health stays true. The addition of Rivers to the offense should bring about more life for the entire passing game, and Hilton should be the biggest beneficiary among the wide receivers.
Still the alpha dog in the offense, the passing game will continue to run through Hilton. With Rivers, the Colts should be a bit more efficient when throwing the ball—even if they prefer to have a balanced attack in neutral game scripts.
Using historical data for Hilton and the past WR1s for Rivers, along with the situation and current makeup of the offense for the Colts in 2020, here is my early projection for Ghost in 2020:
| Targets | Rec. | Yards | TDs | Yds/Rec. | Target Share | Catch Rate |
| 118 | 77 | 1,124 | 6 | 14.6 | 21% | 65% |
Yes, mark me down as buying into the bounce-back campaign for Hilton. He’s one of the most underrated wide receivers to come out of this decade and as long as he stays healthy, he shouldn’t have any trouble approaching these numbers with Rivers under center.
Targets: One might argue the target numbers are a bit low and I could agree. Admittedly, my projections stay on the conservative side. Over the past five seasons, Hilton has averaged 117.4 targets. That includes only 69 targets in 10 games in 2019. Extrapolate that to a 16-game pace, and Hilton’s average targets jump to 125.6 per season since 2015. As long as he’s healthy, he should approach and even exceed 118 targets in 2020.
Receptions: This number is based on the catch rate for Hilton. Though he has only notched over 70 receptions twice in the last five years, that changes here for a few reasons. One, he gets a more accurate quarterback in Rivers. Two, his average depth of target (aDOT) has lowered in recent seasons. From 2012–2015, Hilton’s aDOT stood at 12.7. Since 2016, it has lowered to 11.6. Taking it a step further, Hilton’s aDOT since Frank Reich took over the offense (2018–19) has dropped to 10.6. Shallower targets lead to a better catch rate which leads to more receptions.
Receiving Yards: This and the yards per reception can go together. Hilton’s career mark stands at 15.6 but hit an all-time low in 2019 at 11.1. With Rivers under center, Hilton should see better targets and as long as he’s healthy, he will continue to be an explosive playmaker. Only twice has Hilton registered a yards-per-reception mark under 15 (2013, 2019). Dude is still as explosive as a Michael Bay film.
Target Share: This might be a little low and I wouldn’t be surprised if it finished higher at the end of 2020. A 21% market share is solid but it’s not the elite mark at 25%—a number he’s hit just twice. Hilton will be the primary target in the passing game, and we know Philip Rivers LOVES to target his WR1. For reference, Keenan Allen hasn’t had a target share lower than 26% since the start of the 2017 season. Translate that to Hilton who will play a similar position as the flanker, and he could easily approach the 24–25% threshold. I just prefer to stay on the conservative side with so many mouths to feed in the offense. But make no mistake, Hilton will be an above-average target-hog.
Conclusion
I might be more bullish than most on Hilton, but as long as he’s healthy and Rivers hasn’t deteriorated too much, it’s hard to not see a bounce-back season. On his target share and yardage alone, Hilton holds strong WR2 value with WR1 upside every week. I’m buying into a big year for Ghost.
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