NFL draft weekend is over and there’s a collective “What in the world?” spreading throughout the state of Wisconsin and beyond.
Drafting Aaron Rodgers’ successor now, with Rodgers’ contractually tied to the team for last least three more years? A running back in the second round when historical data suggests that’s not a wise play? A tweener tight end on whom many placed a Day 3 grade?
The Packers have made their fair share of draft day mistakes, but this was one of the more bizarre weekends in recent memory. So what should we make of it?
First, a quick story:
Though time softens our edges and memories, it wasn’t that long ago that Apple looked more like another failed technology company rather than the tech giant we know today.
In the late 1990s, Apple was failing and needed a significant investment to the tune of $150 million by Bill Gates and Microsoft to stay afloat.
“Apple was in very serious trouble,” Apple founder Steve Jobs said about Apple’s financial straits in 1997.
With a fresh chance to revitalize his business, Jobs knew he had to think outside the box to motivate buyers enough to buy his product – i.e. the manifestation of what he believes a personal computer should be.
So how did they rebuild their company into an entity worth as much or more than entire countries? They had to change the game. They had to shift the paradigm internally.
“And what was really clear was that if the game was a zero-sum game where for Apple to win, Microsoft had to lose, then Apple was going to lose,” Jobs said in 1997.
Thus, Apple’s Think Different campaign was born. The pitch was to juxtapose Apple’s eccentricity with the genius of our past heroes – Dr. Martin Luther King Jr., Gandhi, Amelia Earhart, and Albert Einstein, among others. The message to the consumer was simple but effective: being different is good, maybe even great. We know you don’t “get” our product, but give us a chance.
The rest is history, as they say, but living in the moment means we don’t have the benefit of hindsight, just ask Ronald Wayne.
In 1976, Wayne became a third partner to provide financial and professional support to Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak as they started building the foundation of what would become Apple. Wayne received a 10 percent equity stake for his contributions. Concerned about the liabilities that the company was taking on, Wayne sold that 10 percent for $800.
Today, that 10% is worth approximately $95 billion.
These two anecdotes about one organization share one common theme with the Packers. Without the benefit of foresight, safe, conservative, well-planned action that satisfies the current paradigm makes us feel good because we feel it as the best chance to work. Challenging the status quo can be difficult. Stubborn disregard for consensus can be a lonely corner to draft in. But we won’t know whether we’re right or wrong until time passes and evidence materializes.
Jordan Love. A.J. Dillon. Josiah Deguara. Within the first three selections and four picks, the Packers checked positively zero boxes on their “needs” list. The belief, including by yours truly, was that the Packers needed a wide receiver, a developmental tackle, and a linebacker.
Are they thinking differently? Or are they foolishly investing their draft capital, a la Ronald Wayne? The consensus sides with the latter.
The optimistic narrative has a few different variations, but the driving one is that if Love becomes a quality starter at the most important position on the football field, then the organization has raised the team’s floor for the next 15 years. A Super Bowl remains a plausibility.
Additionally, while the Dillon and Deguara picks, a running back and tight end, were headscratchers in real-time, they represent an outside-the-box approach to team building.
Dillon’s tape shows a bruising running back with tremendous speed for a man his size, and based on his body composition he’s not going to have the type of problems that weighed down Eddie Lacy’s career. He’s going to give the Packers’ running game an entirely different dimension, an essential piece to perpetuate the style of offense head coach Matt LaFleur prefers to run. When LaFleur was in Atlanta with Shanahan they often ran two-back sets with Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman. While Dillon is much more of a bruiser than Freeman, it’s doesn’t take much imagination to see Dillon and Jones occupying (with great efficacy) the Freeman and Coleman roles.
It’s no different for Deguara, whose skillset fits in very nicely with the LaFleur-Shanahan offense.
When the San Francisco 49ers hired Kyle Shanahan, one of the team’s first two moves included signing Vikings running back Jerrick McKinnon and Ravens fullback Kyle Juszcyzk to over $21 million in combined guaranteed money. It’s hard to understate the importance Juszcyzk brings to that offense. To make everything look the same, they needed a “fullback” who could block and stretch the seam. Based on tape study, Deguara may not be a facsimile of Juszcyzk, but he’s one of the closest things the Packers could find in the draft to one.
“We will try to emulate some of that stuff in terms of how the Niners used (Kyle) Juszcyzk,” LaFleur told reporters after the pick.
There are legitimate objections to the Packers’ process, most prominently the selection of Love. As we’ve covered, Rodgers’ contract more or less guarantees him a roster spot for at least two more years before it’s financially palatable to move on. The biggest market inefficiency in professional football is having your rookie quarterback starting. The Packers’ window to take advantage of Love’s fixed costs will be small.
The other objections concern value. The Packers’ draft has been universally panned by media; even some scouts have questioned the Packers’ selections. These are all fair. But it’s also important to remember that value is merely a perception. Without the benefit of knowing where players were ranked on other teams’ boards, public data and media big boards formulate the basis with which other media and fans alike draw their sense of “good” or bad” value. Had George Kittle been drafted in the third round, the likely narrative would have been that the 49ers reached on a run-blocking tight end with questionable upside. Narratives are developed with incomplete evidence. In truth, the narratives that drive us to anger or excitement are immaterial.
What matters now is that the Packers have a clear plan on offense. Based on personnel acquisition, this is a team that’s going to look much more like San Francisco this season than it did last season. Its frequency of three of four-wide receiver sets may see a significant drop, thus lowering the team’s utility for another receiver who may need time to develop.
The Packers thought outside the box this past weekend. History will render judgment. If Love is a franchise quarterback, or if Dillon and Seguara or any of the Day 3 picks become heavy contributors, it’s not so much going to matter whether the team got good value. Good players are valuable. But if Love tanks or the lack of receiving weapons re-opens last year’s offensive wounds, or if the class falls flat in general, then Gutekunst and company could be, not unlike Ronald Wayne, on the outside looking in.
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