The Green Bay Packers made nine picks over three days during the 2020 NFL draft. GM Brian Gutekunst took a quarterback in the first round and spent six of his first seven picks on offensive players.
Here’s a breakdown of the Packers’ work in the 2020 draft:
First pick: QB Jordan Love
Gutekunst dipped into Ted Thompson’s bag of tricks and made the tough decision to draft a developmental quarterback in the first round despite having an aging future Hall of Famer on the roster. Aaron Rodgers is signed for another four years and the Packers are coming off a 13-3 season, but Gutekunst and Matt LaFleur loved Jordan Love as a prospect so they stuck to the board and took him. The situation in 2020 isn’t perfectly synonymous with 2005. Unlike Rodgers, Love wasn’t viewed as a top-5 lock, and the Packers actually traded up to get him instead of letting him fall to their pick. It’s also fair to wonder if the timing of the acquisition was right. But if the Packers found something special in Love, they could have stability at quarterback for another decade or more. Talent isn’t an issue; long-term development will be crucial, and Love now has a rare opportunity to sit and learn with zero pressure to play.
Best pick: QB Jordan Love
It’s a little difficult to call Love the best pick in this draft class when it’s possible he won’t play a meaningful down for three years or more. The timing of it all is a sensible argument against the pick. However, he’s the most talented player in the class (by a significant margin), he plays the most important position in the game, and he just landed in an ideal development situation. The Packers raved about his talented arm, toughness and athleticism. Now, Love will get a chance to soak up everything he can from Aaron Rodgers while developing as a pro passer in a stable, controlled environment under Matt LaFleur, a former quarterback who has spent the majority of his NFL career working with the quarterback position. Love has the best chance of becoming an elite player.
Questionable pick: RB A.J. Dillon
Dillon is a huge back with great athleticism, and he’s a good runner who fits well in the scheme and could be a punishing runner in Green Bay, especially late in the year. But taking a running back who may or may not contribute in the passing game in the second round is almost always bad process. Every snap he plays in 2020 will be one less for Aaron Jones, a dynamic playmaker. If Jones is re-signed, Dillon will be a rotational player at a position that isn’t valuable. Dillon is a good football player, but it will very difficult for the Packers to get the right return on this investment.
Sleeper pick: TE Josiah Deguara
Yeah, the Packers took an H-back in the third round. That really happened. For as questionable as the value of the pick was, Deguara is an intriguing player who could be a really solid fit in the scheme. Matt LaFleur envisions him operating as a move tight end or in the backfield, allowing him to disguise looks and stress defenses pre-snap while creating a potentially difficult matchup in the passing game. Can he be a Kyle Juszczyk-like weapon, who blocks and creates mismatches from several different spots on the field? That sounds like the goal here.
Most intriguing pick: OL Jon Runyan
Runyan is such a Packers pick. College left tackle, with good testing numbers, but probably not big enough for the edge, so he moves inside. The Packers have produced so many good linemen following this blueprint. Could Runyan be the next? The Packers don’t have an immediate need inside, so he’ll get some time to work on the transition. It’s tough to pluck a potential starter from the sixth round, but Runyan, the two-time All-Big Ten pick, has a chance.
Biggest winner: Coach Matt LaFleur
Brian Gutekunst shot down the idea that the Packers are in the middle of a transition on offense, but it’s clear the offense is beginning to be structured around LaFleur’s vision. In a class rich with receivers and offensive tackle, the Packers got a big running back, a versatile H-back and three interior offensive linemen in this class. That has to mean something. Oh, and LaFleur just got a brand new toy at his favorite position. The development of Jordan Love may define his Packers legacy. The patience required of the process probably just bought him several years of job security, too.
Biggest loser: QB Aaron Rodgers
It was a tough couple of days for No. 12. Not only did he have to watch his GM trade up to draft his likely successor, but somehow the Packers failed to get a receiver in this loaded class and did little to improve the short or long term outlook of the passing game. Getting a weapon or two could have really set up Rodgers for a late-career surge as a passer, ala Drew Brees and Tom Brady. The counterargument here is that Rodgers is a 36-year-old quarterback with a history of injury who may now be more protected by a run-first offense that takes some every-down pressure off his shoulders. I doubt Rodgers sees it that way. Now, he’ll have to play really, really well for the next three years to keep Love on the bench and prevent a looming divorce.
One thing we learned: Packers like their WRs much more than we do
Brian Gutekunst and Matt LaFleur both said it several times: They like their current group of receivers. And actions speak louder than the words. The Packers came into a historically deep class of receivers and didn’t draft one. Gutekunst said they missed out on the top receivers early and didn’t like the value late. Overall, teams took 37 receivers. For better or worse, the Packers are comfortable banking on contributions from Devin Funchess and improvement from Allen Lazard, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Equanimeous St. Brown to push the position forward. They took similar gambles each of the last two years and lost. They’re going to gamble again in 2020. And don’t forget: the ripple effects extend past next season. By not getting a receiver over the last three days, the Packers have all but guaranteed the position will a big need in 2021.
Strategy breakdown: Day 2 crumbles
There’s nothing wrong with taking a developmental quarterback in the first round from a roster-building standpoint, even if it hurt short-term improvement. Taking a running back and an H-back on Day 2 compounded the lack of short-term impact and really represented the crumbling point of the Packers’ draft class. A.J. Dillon and Josiah Deguara look like good football players headed for specific roles. But it will be almost impossible for the Packers to get enough value and return on investment in a running back and H-back drafted on Day 2.
Future outlook: Offensive line
What are we to make of the Packers’ run on offensive linemen in the sixth round? The Packers took three players likely headed for interior line spots. Elgton Jenkins is locked in as a starter, but center Corey Linsley is a free agent after the 2020 season and Billy Turner is coming off a shaky first season as the starting right guard. Lane Taylor is probably on his way out. Are the Packers hoping they’ve found two future starters in the middle of the line? Taking Jon Runyan, Jake Hanson and Simon Stepaniak back-to-back-to-back may signal the winds of change on the interior.
More elite athletes
The Packers continued their multi-year trend of targeting elite athletes, especially early. Jordan Love was one of the most athletic quarterbacks in the class. A.J. Dillon is 247 pounds but ran 4.5 and hit 41″ in the vertical. Josiah Deguara, if mostly a fullback, would be an elite athlete at his position. Kamal Martin didn’t test at the combine but the Packers saw him as a 4.5-4.6 guy at 240 pounds. Jon Runyan timed well in the agility drills, often a key indicator for offensive line success. One of the outliers was center Jake Hanson, who had a RAS under 4.0, but for the most part, the Packers got more top athletes in this class.
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