This is the ranking I’m most worried about getting @FreezingColdTakes’d about. I can envision Jalen Hurts developing into a reliable — and possibly good — NFL starter, but I don’t know if any team will have the patience to give him a chance. Hurts is the one top quarterback prospect in this draft who will make a real difference as a runner and he showed just enough progress as a passer during his lone season in Norman to garner consideration as an early Day 3 pick.
Downfield accuracy is the biggest problem. Hurts has shown signs of being able to navigate the pocket and make reads downfield, but that’s more the exception than the rule. Hurts is who the Lamar Jackson skeptics thought the NFL MVP would be. The difference? Jackson was a far better passer and a more explosive runner. And unlike other dual threats who have made it in the NFL, Hurts doesn’t have a special arm.
+ Showed improvement as a passer in Norman. Hurts has shown signs of being able to navigate the pocket and make reads downfield.
[jwplayer tvd2zxMp-EUNY1AaW]
+ Can evade pressure in the pocket and remain in pass-first mode
[jwplayer xOxLbOmK-EUNY1AaW]
+ Has running back ability. Capable of being the centerpiece of a team’s running game.
[jwplayer 6SxTXbEn-EUNY1AaW]
– Accuracy erratic at times
[jwplayer Ts8mZlEN-EUNY1AaW]
– Does not possess an overly strong arm, a bad combination with poor accuracy
[jwplayer tlEks3yg-EUNY1AaW]
– Will bail from clean pockets even if receivers are open downfield
[jwplayer cJghc1Ie-EUNY1AaW]
If Hurts is going to make it as a full-time quarterback at the next level, he’ll have to get better at the “gimme” throws. You can’t miss those in the NFL.
I have concerns about Hurts’ accuracy, but the numbers do not. He ranked highly in all the accuracy measures despite owning the class’s highest average depth of target. How often he put the ball in harm’s way is very concerning, however.
Jump to another QB: Joe Burrow | Tua Tagovailoa | Jordan Love | Justin Herbert | Anthony Gordon | Jacob Eason | Jake Fromm | Back to Rankings
Glossary of advanced stats
PFF
Adjusted Completion Percentage:
“Adjusted completion percentage considers factors outside of the quarterback’s control in terms of completing passes. It accounts for dropped passes, passes thrown away, spiked balls, passes batted at the line of scrimmage and those passes in which a quarterback was hit as he threw.”
Average Depth of Target:
The average distance a quarterback’s throws travel past the line of scrimmage.
Big-time Throw Percentage:
“In its simplest terms, a big-time throw is on the highest end of both difficulty and value … Therefore, the big-time throw is best described as a pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window.”
Turnover-worthy Throw Percentage:
“For quarterbacks, there are two ways to achieve a turnover-worthy play: throw a pass that has a high percentage chance to be intercepted or do a poor job of taking care of the ball and fumbling.”
SIS
On-target Throw Percentage:
“The number of accurate throws a quarterback makes divided by the total number of pass attempts”
Catchable Throw Percentage:
“The number of catchable throws a quarterback makes divided by the total number of pass attempts”
EPA:
“Expected Points Added; the total change in the offense’s Expected Points that came on passes thrown by the player”
Total Points:
“The total of a player’s EPA responsibility on passes using the Total Points system that distributes credit among all players on the field for a given play. For passers, this includes accounting for offensive line play, sacks, off-target passes, dropped passes, and dropped interceptions.”
IQR:
“Sports Info Solutions’ proprietary quarterback metric builds on the traditional Passer Rating formula by considering the value of a quarterback independent of results outside of his control such as dropped passes, dropped interceptions, throwaways, etc.”