Tua Tagovailoa looks the part. No, not in the traditional sense, where every quarterback is tall and white and possesses a big arm. But actually watch Tua operate Alabama’s offense and he just looks like a professional quarterback. He gets through his reads quickly and delivers the ball with accuracy. The biggest concern — outside of the hip injury that ended his college career, of course — is his ability to make big-time throws. It’s not just an arm strength issue, either. Tua is overly conservative and will have to change his mentality if he’s going to be more than a mid-tier quarterback at the next level.
+ With a clear platform, the most consistently accurate quarterback in the class
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+ A quick processor who does good pre-snap work and doesn’t panic if his first read isn’t open
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+ Always knows where his outlet is, which helps him avoid negative plays and keeps his team ahead of the chains
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+ Will manipulate defenders with his eyes and shoulders to open up throwing windows
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– Lacks the arm strength to consistently make throws downfield
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– Overly conservative and too quick to settle for a checkdown
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– An athletic quarterback but doesn’t throw well on the run
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Tua doesn’t miss … unless you are asking him to throw the ball deep over the middle. Those were typically secondary reads for Tua, who had issues connecting on those throws during his abbreviated junior campaign.
If you want to know why some teams might be scared off from taking Tua in the top-five — besides the hip — just check out his big-time throw percentage and average depth of target.
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Glossary of advanced stats
PFF
Adjusted Completion Percentage:
“Adjusted completion percentage considers factors outside of the quarterback’s control in terms of completing passes. It accounts for dropped passes, passes thrown away, spiked balls, passes batted at the line of scrimmage and those passes in which a quarterback was hit as he threw.”
Average Depth of Target:
The average distance a quarterback’s throws travel past the line of scrimmage.
Big-time Throw Percentage:
“In its simplest terms, a big-time throw is on the highest end of both difficulty and value … Therefore, the big-time throw is best described as a pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window.”
Turnover-worthy Throw Percentage:
“For quarterbacks, there are two ways to achieve a turnover-worthy play: throw a pass that has a high percentage chance to be intercepted or do a poor job of taking care of the ball and fumbling.”
SIS
On-target Throw Percentage:
“The number of accurate throws a quarterback makes divided by the total number of pass attempts”
Catchable Throw Percentage:
“The number of catchable throws a quarterback makes divided by the total number of pass attempts”
EPA:
“Expected Points Added; the total change in the offense’s Expected Points that came on passes thrown by the player”
Total Points:
“The total of a player’s EPA responsibility on passes using the Total Points system that distributes credit among all players on the field for a given play. For passers, this includes accounting for offensive line play, sacks, off-target passes, dropped passes, and dropped interceptions.”
IQR:
“Sports Info Solutions’ proprietary quarterback metric builds on the traditional Passer Rating formula by considering the value of a quarterback independent of results outside of his control such as dropped passes, dropped interceptions, throwaways, etc.”