ESPN analyst projects 2020 fantasy football stats for individual Saints players

The New Orleans Saints have the NFL’s best projected win total from one ESPN analyst, buoyed by a few standout fantasy football performances

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Few teams have as high of expectations as the New Orleans Saints do in 2020. Having come so-close to a Super Bowl berth in each of the last three years and with Drew Brees weighing post-retirement job offers from television networks, this might be their final shot at winning it all with No. 9 directing the offense from under center (his two-year contract isn’t what it appears on the surface).

And the Saints will be a big focus of the fantasy football community so long as Brees is running the show. That’s reflected in the latest projections from ESPN’s Mike Clay, who estimates individual stats for each team every year. On Thursday, he released his updated look at the Saints.

Clay anticipates another good-but-not-great year from Brees, finishing at a hair under 4,100 yards with a nice score-to-turnover ratio with 31 touchdown passes against 9 interceptions. While he didn’t specify whether Taysom Hill or another quarterback would fill in for Brees during a game, he does expect an unremarkable performance during what’s likely mop-up duty in a meaningless regular season finale.

On the ground, Clay isn’t betting on a big increase in touches for veteran running back Latavius Murray (with 145 carries for 602 yards and five touchdowns) against the all-star starter, Alvin Kamara (who has 191 attempts for 862 yards and seven touchdown runs). But as we saw last year, Clay anticipates a larger discrepancy through the air with 78 receptions for Kamara and just 26 catches for Murray.

However, the gap between Michael Thomas, the Saints’ number-one receiver, and the free agent slotted in at the number-two spot, Emmanuel Sanders, is not nearly as start as last year’s gap between Thomas and the runner-up (Ted Ginn). In 2020, Clay expects Thomas to again draw 150-plus targets, catching 116 of them (for 1,343 yards). But this year he’ll have better help in Sanders and his 56 receptions (for 737 yards). Tre’Quan Smith, Deonte Harris, and Lil’Jordan Humphrey round out the group with a meager 27 catches.

The contributions from the tight ends can’t be overlooked. Clay anticipates Jared Cook to reel in 46 of his 70 targets for 653 yards and seven touchdown scores, with Josh Hill and Taysom Hill combining for another 34 catches. However, Cook should beat those expectations with more time spent catching passes from Drew Brees than Teddy Bridgewater.

On defense, edge rushers Cameron Jordan and Marcus Davenport are expected to lead the team in sacks (11 for Jordan, 6.5 for Davenport) while Sheldon Rankins (593 snaps), David Onyemata (532), and Malcom Brown (409) dominate playing-time in the middle of the line.

Linebacker Demario Davis should have another productive year (Clay estimates 941 snaps resulting in 113 tackles), with Alex Anzalone (481 snaps, 61 tackles), Kiko Alonso (409, 51), and Craig Robertson (379, 43) platooning next to him. Lengthy injury histories for Anzalone and Alonso could forecast more playing-time for Robertson, barring a late-offseason addition through the draft or free agency.

The secondary appears set with Clay anticipating Marshon Lattimore and Marcus Williams leading the team in snaps played (972 each), and Malcolm Jenkins (962) and Janoris Jenkins (870) not far behind. C.J. Gardner-Johnson’s role is yet to be determined, but for now Clay projects him to play more often at cornerback, ranking fourth on the depth chart behind Lattimore, Jenkins, and P.J. Williams. However, Gardner-Johnson should do that and also place higher in the pecking-order at safety than D.J. Swearinger.

As for their win probability: Clay’s projections have the Saints winning 50% or more of their games in every contest on their schedule. Their toughest games are road trips against the Philadelphia Eagles (55%), Tom Brady’s Tampa Bay Buccaneers (56%), the Atlanta Falcons (61%), the Detroit Lions (62%), and Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs (63%). That all shakes out into an NFL-best projection of 11.3 wins.

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