[jwplayer aBSfyrKD-ThvAeFxT]
Mock drafts with wrinkles are the only way it seems they can get away with keeping Joe Burrow from the Cincinanti Bengals with the first pick.
And a 2.0 version of an analytics-based mock has the Bengals again taking Chase Young over Burrow at No. 1. The idea again this time, courtesy of NFL.com’s Cynthia Frelund, is running models to find out which prospect will give the Bengals the most wins in 2020 only:
“With some surprise high-value free agents still on the market — namely edge rusher Jadeveon Clowney and quarterback Cam Newton — the mathematical decision translates to win-share value of more-known quantity at edge (Clowney) plus rookie quarterback ( Joe Burrow) versus more-known quantity at quarterback (Newton) plus rookie edge (Young). With the Bengals’ subpar O-line — and the rules of this mock narrowing our focus to 2020 wins only (disregarding future years) — Young, who is my model’s highest-rated player, barely edges out Burrow. In Mock 1.0, there was a much bigger gap in win-share increase between Young and Burrow. Now, that margin is razor thin.”
It’s an interesting idea and the thought of Young on the same line as Geno Atkins, Carl Lawson, Carlos Dunlap and Sam Hubbard isn’t an unsavory one.
But it’s also interesting to think Young’s mere presence could account for more wins than Burrow — even as a rookie. With offensive line play improved, A.J. Green potentially back and a whole host of weapons like Tyler Boyd and Joe Mixon surrounding the passer, even a slight upgrade at quarterback has the potential to boost the Bengals well above the two-win mark in 2020.
While the Bengals have spent the last few years getting more analytical themselves, no amount of data will likely nudge Burrow out of being the top pick.
[vertical-gallery id=30319]