The Green Bay Packers are doing their homework on the incoming class of quarterbacks in the 2020 draft, but it should require a special situation for GM Brian Gutekunst and coach Matt LaFleur to greenlight using a high pick on an eventual successor to two-time MVP and future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers.
Here’s why it’s at least a year early for the Packers to be taking a quarterback high in the draft:
1. Financials: Aaron Rodgers’ contract doesn’t expire until after the 2023 season. Given the salary cap ramifications of releasing him (see: dead money), he’s all but a lock to be on the roster and starting for the next three years. Drafting a quarterback now just doesn’t make good sense financially. The Packers would be robbing themselves of the major competitive advantage of having a starting quarterback on a rookie contract.
2. Super Bowl window open: The Packers were one game away from the Super Bowl last season. Taking a quarterback high in this draft does nothing to get this team closer to winning a championship. If the goal is to maximize the chances of winning a Super Bowl in 2020, valuable assets – like high draft picks – must be used to build elsewhere. Long-term stability at quarterback is important, but so is fortifying a roster that can win big with an expensive veteran quarterback. Cheap assets like draft picks must be used correctly to do it.
3. Aaron Rodgers: Yes, Rodgers will turn 37 in December. But his situation is not anything like Brett Favre’s in 2005. Rodgers is playing at a high level (according to both Brian Gutekunst and Matt LaFleur) and has confirmed time and time again his desire to keep playing into his 40s. And Rodgers wants to do it in Green Bay to cement his legacy. There’s little to no threat of him walking away in the next few years. Favre was suffering huge dips in performance and contemplating retirement every summer. The situations aren’t synonymous.
4. Quarterbacks don’t sit long: It was far more common for quarterbacks – even high picks – to sit and learn on the bench for a few years. Obviously, Rodgers waited three years for his turn in Green bay. That just doesn’t happen in today’s game. Young quarterbacks do sit – Patrick Mahomes sat for a year in Kansas City – but they all need to play sooner rather than later. The Packers can’t really expect to sit a high pick behind Rodgers for two or three years.
5. Comparative situation: In 2005, the Packers took Rodgers after he suffered a dramatic and unexpected fall. Many expected him to either go No. 1 overall or land in the top five. He fell to No. 24. Is there a quarterback capable of a similar fall? If Joe Burrow falls to No. 30, the Packers should obviously take him. They’d at least have to have a long discussion about Tua Tagovailoa, who could fall due to injury. But taking a quarterback in the Packers’ current situation requires a special scenario. It’s hard to see one playing out later this month.