There’s really only one scenario where the Cincinnati Bengals and the Miami Dolphins should complete a pick for the No. 1 overall pick, a deal which the Dolphins are considering, according to the Miami Herald. But it’s not that unlikely of a scenario. It centers around the Bengals leaving the draft with a franchise quarterback, even if it’s not Joe Burrow.
The perception is that Burrow is head-and-shoulders a better product than Tua Tagovailoa. Why? Well, that’s not totally clear. The biggest problem with Burrow? In my mind, it’s that he’s had just one high-caliber season. And we’re also assuming Burrow is willing to go to Cincy. He said he’ll play there, but maybe he’d be happier playing elsewhere.
Meanwhile, Tagovailoa has two impressive seasons, with an injury that came at the wrong moment for his professional prospects. Timing is everything. He suffered an ankle and hip injury, which has teams questioning his durability. Had he been able to leave college football after the 2018 season, he probably would have been in tight competition with Kyler Murray for the No. 1 overall pick.
My point is that Burrow and Tagovailoa are perceived to be on different tiers. In reality, they’re much closer than people think. And in terms of draft assets, the Bengals’ No. 1 overall pick and the Dolphins’ No. 5 pick are much further than people think.
Historically, jumping from the top quarterback to the second-best quarterback is tricky. For example: What if the Colts had decided trade back to No. 2 overall to take Ryan Leaf while, in turn, passing on Peyton Manning? Yikes. But there isn’t an obvious pattern when looking at the first- and second-best quarterback in a draft when they both go in the top five picks. Let’s take a look at some recent drafts:
- In 1999, the Browns would’ve been wise to take Donovan McNabb (the No. 2 pick) over Tim Couch (first overall).
- After that, there weren’t two quarterbacks in the top five picks until 2004 when we got the Eli-Manning-for-Philip-Rivers swap. A deal for Burrow and Tagovailoa would be quite similar. That deal worked out for both parties.
- Had the Lions decided to swap Matthew Stafford (No. 1 overall in 2009) for Mark Sanchez (fifth-overall), we’d probably still be mocking the Lions as the worst franchise of all time.
- In 2012, Andrew Luck went first and Robert Griffin went second. Luck was definitely the better quarterback, even if both players had their careers marred by injuries.
- Marcus Mariota (Titans) followed Jameis Winston (Buccaneers), the top pick in 2015. Winston is clearly more talented, even if neither franchise wanted their quarterback past this year. Winston may be unemployed, but Mariota only has a job lined up in 2020 because his salary is tiny. Past that, it’s hard to judge.
- From 2016: Jared Goff or Carson Wentz? Maybe it’s Wentz, but Goff has at least been healthy.
- And in 2018? Again, Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold are probably in equally tenuous places.
Sometimes trading back for the second-best QB would’ve been the absolute right move. Other times, an abject disaster. But it’s hard to know that up front; you’re just trusting your scouts and you instincts, both of which have been wrong before.
So if Cincinnati sees Tagovailoa as being anywhere close to Burrow, and can get a major haul of picks while still getting a franchise QB, it should. The Dolphins happen to be in position to make a unique offer with assets exclusively from this year’s draft class. Here’s a trade that benefits both sides.
What the Bengals get
- The 2020 No. 5 overall pick: To be clear, this trade only goes through if Tagovailoa is still there at No. 5. Once the Dolphins make him their selection, the deal becomes official. If he doesn’t make it that far, the deal is off. Sure, the Bengals could look to 2021, when Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence and Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields are expected to be at the top of most draft boards. But those players would require the Bengals to tank for a second straight year. That’s probably too much to ask. The Bengals must leave this draft with a franchise quarterback. If they think there are two, they should ensure they get one of them. If someone grabs Tua from picks two to four, the Bengals will stick with Burrow and endure the awkwardness that would likely ensue when news of this conditional trade gets out.
- The 2020 No. 18 overall pick: The Dolphins got this selection by trading Minkah Fitzpatrick to the Pittsburgh Steelers. In this hypothetical, the Dolphins still pick twice in the first round (No. 1 and No. 26 (from Houston in the Laremy Tunsil trade). And the Bengals pick twice at No. 5 and No. 18.
- The 2020 56th overall pick: Miami could give up a 2021 first round pick, rather than keep giving up assets in this year’s draft. But because the Dolphins are so stocked with draft assets this year, they should probably just send their second of two 2020 second-round picks in this trade. The 56th selection came in a draft-day trade with New Orleans in 2019. Because the NFL values future picks at such a discount, the Dolphins may as well just give up pick 56, rather than what will likely be a mid or late first-round pick in 2021 (if Miami makes the turnaround I have long expected it will make).
What the Dolphins get
- The No. 1 overall pick and Joe
“Tom Brady”Burrow: Need I say more? Much of this post has pointed at the idea that Burrow and Tagovailoa are on a similar plane. But if the Dolphins believe the LSU product is the next Tom Brady (or even Kurt Warner), they should make a point of getting Burrow in a season when they have the draft assets to do it. They spent the last year stockpiling picks to get the flexibility they wanted for this draft. Now is the time to flex. Dolphins GM Chris Grier should put his job on the line to get Burrow.
The biggest potential hitch in this trade is the idea that Tagovailoa will go unselected between No. 2 and No. 4. While the teams in those slots (the Redskins, Lions and Giants) don’t actually need a quarterback, they would probably be happy to shop their picks to the Chargers, Panthers or Raiders, especially if it’s common knowledge around the NFL that this Burrow-Tua trade is in place. Those teams know Tua won’t get past fifth-overall. But if they (or other teams) don’t blow up the deal, this could work nicely for both sides.
[vertical-gallery id=906586]