The Panthers have already lost or gotten rid of several beloved veteran players this offseason. Luke Kuechly retired, Greg Olsen was released, Trai Turner was traded, Mario Addison was allowed to walk and even Cam Newton got cut on Tuesday.
Clearly, nobody is safe on the roster outside of perhaps a very select few players who were recent early-round draft picks. Whatever else happens, guys like Brian Burns and D.J. Moore are unlikely to go anywhere. If there winds up being an exception to that rule, most likely it will be superstar running back Christian McCaffrey.
At this point, trading McCaffrey might make some Carolina fans revolt. However, there is a decent case to make for dealing him this year. Pro Football Focus went deep on that idea Wednesday, suggesting now is the ideal time to cash in on his perceived value. PFF says according to their wins above replacement (WAR) model, McCaffrey has been the most valuable running back in the NFL since he was drafted.
“According to PFF WAR, he has been the most valuable running back in the NFL since joining the league, beating out the likes of Alvin Kamara, Todd Gurley and Ezekiel Elliott. At just 23 years old and still on his rookie contract with no injury concerns, McCaffrey’s value is at an all-time high. That’s something that the Carolina Panthers must capitalize on, as much as it may hurt.”
The trouble is even the best running back in football is far less valuable than a quality wide receiver or tight end – even if they’re a great receiver. PFF says advanced stats like success rate and EPA per play show that’s true.
“In 2019 alone, teams had a 48.2% success rate — the percentage of plays that generate positive EPA — when targeting running backs. In comparison, that number was 55.6% when targeting tight ends and 54.1% when targeting wide receivers. EPA per play. . . tells a similar story. Running back targets generated an average mark of 0.04, while tight ends (0.25) and wide receivers (0.29) were well clear of that figure.”
On the other hand, the Panthers have an exceptional talent in McCaffrey, who is only 23 years old. He’s the most capable offensive playmaker on the roster and replacing him would be difficult, to say the least.
That said, we know that paying running backs – even those as gifted as McCaffrey – tends not to work out in the NFL.
If they decide to keep him around, Carolina is going to have to make him the highest-paid back in the league. At the moment, that title belongs to Ezekiel Elliott. His new contract with the Cowboys averages $15 million per year and included over $50 million in guarantees. No matter how the Panthers feel about McCaffrey’s skillset, paying him that much or even more is a hard sell. Especially if McCaffrey decides to hold out, the case for trading him becomes that much stronger.
Our best guess is that McCaffrey will play for Carolina in 2020, but right now it’s hard to feel sure about anything with this team.
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