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There is a chance the Cincinnati Bengals and Joe Mixon could head toward a holdout this offseason.
Mixon is one of the NFL’s best running backs and would probably like to get paid as such, as opposed to his current meager deal he’s outperforming.
But being one of the NFL’s best backs continues to matter little.
Just ask Todd Gurley, the star Los Angeles Rams running back who had a monster deal before getting released. Paying an elite running back was so bad the Rams cut Gurley after inking him to an extension back in July of 2018 and only saved $5.5 million against the cap.
Gurley, formerly an MVP-level player who is only 25, had to settle for a one-year deal worth $5 million with the Atlanta Falcons.
There is some injury background there, among other things. But top running backs getting littler than expected isn’t new. Arizona gave away David Johnson. The Chargers laughed at Melvin Gordon’s holdout and he went on to get just two years and $16 million in Denver. Tennessee just slapped a franchise tag on Derrick Henry.
Things are so bad that the meager deal the Bengals inked backup Giovani Bernard to ranks among the top 10 in average per year:
Todd Gurley was the NFL's 2nd-highest paid RB in average per year ($14.375 million).
New leaderboard, excluding slotted rookie deals:
1. Ezekiel Elliott $15M
2. Le'Veon Bell $13.125M
3. David Johnson $13M
4. Austin Ekeler $6.125M
5. Duke Johnson $5.2M
6. Giovani Bernard $5.15M— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) March 19, 2020
If the Bengals are willing to throw two years and $9.7 million on an extension at Bernard for his 53 rushes and 30 catches last year, it might suggest they will be willing to throw quite a bit more at Mixon to keep him happy. But there’s a counterplay there — they already have a ton of money invested in the position now.
We’re likely sitting on the recipe of a major market reshift for running backs. Guys like Gordon found out the hard way the NFL won’t do Ezekiel Elliott-style deals anymore.
Gordon’s average salary of $8 million per year and $8.43 million per year for Kenyan Drake might be the new sweet spot for elite running back deals.
But it all depends on how Mixon and his reps view himself and how long they’d be willing to play a back and forth on extension talks.
The Bengals are better at managing cap than most teams and could structure an extension smartly to make Mixon happy while minimizing risk. But with two of the three average annual salaries at the position major regrets for teams and a steep dropoff after the top three, it might come down to whether the Bengals are willing to catapult Mixon into the top three or insist he stays in the new apparent price range for elite rushers.
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