Predicting Packers’ biggest moves in free agency

Packers Wire predicts the biggest moves the Packers will make as free agency and the new year league begins.

The NFL’s legal tampering window is tentatively scheduled to open on Monday, with the start of the new league year and free agency scheduled for Wednesday.

GM Brian Gutekunst and the Green Bay Packers look ready to dip back into free agency after signing Za’Darius Smith, Preston Smith, Adrian Amos and Billy Turner during a shopping spree on the opening day of the new league year last March.

Here are Packers Wire’s predictions for what the Packers’ biggest moves will be this week (note: these are predictions for what the Packers will do, not necessarily what the Packers should do):

Zach Kruse: Packers sign TE Austin Hooper and LB Nick Kwiatkoski, re-sign OT Jared Veldheer

The Packers’ priorities entering free agency look increasingly clear: GM Brian Gutekunst wants to add both a veteran pass-catcher and a potential impact inside linebacker.

With such a loaded draft class at receiver, the smart play could be to target the tight end position in free agency, and Hooper – a Pro Bowler in 2019 – has been identified as a top target. He won’t be cheap, and the Packers might have to overpay, but he’s also 25, ascending as a player and ultra-dependable as a pass-catcher. He perfectly fits Gutekunst’s profile of a free-agent target and could provide Aaron Rodgers with another reliable weapon in the passing game.

At inside linebacker, Cory Littleton is, in my estimate, the best player on the market, and by a decent margin. But if the Packers have to spend on Hooper, they may have to settle for a second-tier target at linebacker, and Kwiatkoski is the best of the bunch. He was terrific at times as a spot starter in Chicago and could really emerge as a full-time starter.

The result of signing Hooper and Kwiatkoski is, of course, losing Bryan Bulaga, a long-time starter at right tackle. The cheap solution is bringing back Veldheer on a short deal and identifying the long-term solution in the draft.

Wepfer: Packers sign LB Cory Littleton, re-sign OT Jared Veldheer

With both Blake Martinez and Bryan Bulaga presumably leaving in free agency, the Packers need to address two major questions on their roster during this offseason: inside linebacker and offensive tackle.

According to Bill Huber of SI, the Packers’ No. 1 free-agent priority is former Rams linebacker Cory Littleton. The prediction is that the Packers will pay the premium necessary to receive Littleton’s services. NFL.com’s Tom Pelissero wrote that Littleton could see “upwards” of $13.5 million per year. Given the nature of free agency, $13.5 million is probably a conservative estimate. So why are the Packers willing to pony up the necessary dough? Two reasons. First, Littleton brings the right skill set that has been missing from the Packers’ defense.

Here’s what Packers Wire’s Zach Kruse wrote about him:

The schematic fit couldn’t be better. In Los Angeles, Littleton was often tasked with being the lone off-ball linebacker in Wade Phillips’ coverage-heavy scheme. Mike Pettine and the Packers operate in many of the same ways. In fact, last season, one of the defense’s preferred packages featured four upfront – generally two outside linebackers and two down linemen – with Blake Martinez and six defensive backs behind it. Littleton has more experience playing in this setup than maybe any other inside linebacker in the NFL, and he’s infinitely better operating sideline to sideline and covering the middle of the field than Martinez, who is also a free agent.

The second reason is a developmental one. It would be a difficult task for a rookie linebacker to wear the communication helmet and call the plays. Pettine could ask a safety to do so, but that hasn’t seemed to be his MO as a coordinator. Additionally, there are no guarantees Kenneth Murray and Patrick Queen – the two linebackers in the draft capable of being Day 1 starters – will actually make it to No. 30. Paying a premium for Littleton gives the Packers more flexibility in the draft to find proper value at other positions. It also helps that Littleton is young (26 years old), which means he may yet still be ascending.

Which brings us to offensive tackle and Jared Veldheer. If the Packers do bring in Littleton, they’ll have exhausted most of their financial resources. As a result, they’ll have to get creative to fill Bulaga’s absence. The prediction here is to bring back Veldheer on a modest one or two-year deal. In the limited time he played last season, he looked like a capable player in a stop-gap role. It’s a downgrade from Bulaga, but it’s a respectable short-term solution while the Packers groom their next tackle of the future.

Kipp: Sign TE Austin Hooper and LB Nick Kwiatkoski, re-sign Jared Veldheer

The Packers pass on re-signing Bryan Bulaga, their long time starter at right tackle, due to age and perceived price tag. Bulaga, 31, is expected to garner big money, which is why the Packers opt for the cheaper option in Jared Veldheer. The thought process here is that Veldheer would sign a short-term deal to fill in as a stop-gap option while the Packers groom their right tackle of the future. Green Bay signs Veldheer to a one-year deal while drafting an offensive tackle with a high pick in this year’s draft. Veldheer was claimed by the Packers on waivers late in 2019 and saw action in two games, playing a total of 98 snaps. He served much better in pass-protection than as a run blocker.

Green Bay elects to go with another mid-tier free agent by signing Bears linebacker Nick Kwiatkoski. He might not cost as much as Blake Martinez, Cory Littleton or Joe Schobert, mostly because he’s never been in a full-time role as a starter during his four NFL seasons. But that doesn’t mean he can’t be productive going forward. Think of how the Ravens utilized Za’Darius Smith during his first four years. Green Bay saw a golden opportunity to bet on an ascending player and it paid off. The Packers have to address the linebacker position this offseason, so bringing in a known commodity like Kwiatkoski would put the team in a great position heading into the draft, offering more flexibility early on.

Where there’s smoke, there’s usually fire. The Packers are rumored to have interest in Falcons tight end Austin Hooper, and the team just released Jimmy Graham this past week. Adding those pieces together brings us to the conclusion that Green Bay is very interested in adding a veteran pass-catching tight end. Hooper fits that bill. He’s not spectacular at any one thing, but he’s a big-bodied target that thrives in the quick passing game. Hooper is expected to reset the tight end market, which likely means the Packers would need to back-load his contract.

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