Caveat emptor, quia ignorare non debuit quod jus alienum emit.
Caveat emptor has become a proverb in the English language what stands for the proposition of “let the buyer beware.” However, it is a short form gleamed from that entire phrase above, which translated states as follows: Let a purchaser beware, for he ought not to be ignorant of the nature of the property which he is buying from another party.”
Not to put my lawyer hat on for too long, but caveat emptor used to be the standard basis of contract law, and is still generally in effect absent a legally binding warranty, or fraud on the part of the seller. Absent those factors, the it is up to the buyer to make sure that they are getting what they paid for.
That principle can certainly be used when discussing NFL free agency. In a few days 32 football organizations are going to dive into the open market and put millions and millions of dollars into the hands of players who – potentially – could help deliver a Super Bowl title. Yet, with these moves comes a certain level of risk with each transaction, and given the money involved, some teams may overpay for players when better value is to be found elsewhere.
Consider the NFL’s model franchise: The New England Patriots. Every year Bill Belichick avoids the primary free agency market, and looks to add players in the secondary or tertiary part of free agency, seeking players that fit what the Patriots do schematically rather than overpaying for players that not be the perfect piece in the machine. Of course, there are exceptions, such as Stephon Gilmore, but for every transaction like that there are others which initially fall under the radar, but end up playing a huge role in New England. Players such as Mike Vrabel, David Patten, Rob Nikovich, and Rodney Harrison.
With that in mind, let’s look at a handful of players who might command big deals over the next week or so, but teams looking to sign them should keep those words in mind: caveat emptor.
Philip Rivers, QB, Los Angeles Chargers
The veteran quarterback is largely considered to be one of the top free agents available this off-season, not just at the quarterback position but league-wide. But taking a chance on Rivers does not come without a good share of risks, and any team that brings him into the fold needs to be clear about where he currently is as a quarterback.
Two seasons ago Rivers led the Chargers to the playoffs, and he was playing perhaps some of his best football over the past few years of his career. Two areas that really stood out with him during the 2018-2019 season were his deep passing numbers as well as his ability to handle and respond to pressure. According to charting data from Pro Football Focus, Rivers had an Adjusted Completion Percentage (ACP) of 71.6%, which was fifth-best in the league. Only Kirk Cousins, Drew Brees, Marcus Mariota and Matt Ryan fared better in that statistic.
Additionally, Rivers posted the eighth-best ACP of 46.3% on downfield throws (defined as 20 yards or more) in the league. On those throws Rivers also put up an NFL passer rating of 90.7.
Unfortunately, Rivers took a step in both of those categories last season. When pressured, Rivers saw his ACP drop to 65.3%, which was just tenth-best in the league. He threw nine touchdowns and nine interceptions when he was under duress. The deep passing game? That number dropped as well, as he put up an ACP of 41.8% and threw five touchdowns – against nine interceptions – when throwing downfield.
Something that might allow teams to talk themselves into Rivers is what he did when he was kept clean, and this speaks to why buyers need to beware when signing him. Throwing from a clean pocket last year Rivers had an ACP of 81.1%, which was seventh-best in the league. Only Cousins, Brees, Derek Carr, Deshaun Watson, Jimmy Garoppolo and Sam Darnold fared better. Rivers also threw for eight touchdowns, without an interception, when not pressured.
So the organization that signs Rivers will want to make sure they have an offensive line that will keep him clean and put him in position to replicate those numbers from 2019. That requires looking beyond just the quarterback position, and evaluating the entirety of the offense around him. For some teams this will still make sense, but organizations thinking about bringing him in need to have a clear head – and pocket – when considering such a move.