The Big Ten’s depth — and its lack of a great, transcendent team — should point to a tournament this week in Indianapolis which creates all sorts of seed-based outcomes. More precisely, we shouldn’t think of various seed-based outcomes as upsets. There aren’t many upsets to be found in the Big Ten other than Northwestern and Nebraska winning games. Those would be the only shockers. Everything else among the top 12 teams in the conference seems entirely realistic.
Minnesota led Iowa late in Williams Arena a few weeks ago before letting the Hawkeyes off the hook. If Minnesota manages to beat Iowa in a 12-over-5-seed upset, would it be THAT shocking? Hardly. Minnesota almost beat Maryland. It almost beat Indiana. It almost won a number of very important games but couldn’t close the deal. Minnesota is a very dangerous No. 12 seed at a conference tournament, which in many ways tells you everything you need to know about the Big Ten Tournament.
Let’s play more seed-based games: If No. 11 seed Indiana beat No. 6 Penn State in a second-round game, would THAT be a stunner? Indiana recently beat PSU.
If No. 10 seed Purdue — which beat No. 2 seed Michigan State by 29 points earlier this season — makes its way to the semifinals on Saturday by beating Ohio State (second round) and Michigan State (quarterfinals), would it be a massive upset? Not at all. Maybe a slight surprise, but not an earthquake.
Last but certainly not least, if Wisconsin loses to Michigan or Rutgers — both NCAA Tournament teams — it wouldn’t be a gigantic shocker. It is very rare that an 8-9 game in a conference tournament involves two NCAA Tournament teams, but this is a rare season, and the Big Ten is ridiculously deep.
Rutgers versus Purdue in the Big Ten Tournament final on Sunday? Michigan versus Indiana in the Big Ten final? I wouldn’t expect those outcomes… but they wouldn’t be completely shocking. With nine certain NCAA Tournament teams and 11 teams being within the realm of possibility, the Big Ten Tournament could create numerous outcomes which wouldn’t be hugely surprising.
Expect just about anything… except for Northwestern and Nebraska winning a game.