That Teddy Bridgewater is back in our lives as NFL fans is worth celebrating. One of the best stories of the 2019 season was Bridgewater, who hadn’t started a meaningful football game in over three years, taking over for injured Drew Brees and leading the Saints to a 5-0 record during that stretch.
During Bridgewater’s grueling recovery and rehab, we wondered what could have been. What could have been if Bridgewater hadn’t suffered a catastrophic knee injury just weeks out from the 2016 season? On the heels of that impressive stretch as the starting quarterback, Bridgewater enters free agency with a chance to find a team of his own. And the question is no longer “What could have been?” Now the question is, “What can Teddy Bridgewater be?”
Before we can answer that question, we have to figure out what Bridgewater is — or, at least, what he was during the 2019 season. The numbers were good but not great: In five starts, the 27-year-old completed 69.7% of his passes for 1,205 yards (7.3 yards/attempt), nine touchdowns and two interceptions. That’s good for a passer rating of 103.7.
His more advanced metrics were a tad less flattering. He finished with a QBR of 48.9, a Completion Percentage Over Expectation of 0.6 while adding 0.17 expected points per dropback. And Bridgewater’s clean pocket stats, which carry the most predictive power, are promising. He averaged 0.21 EPA per attempt from a clean pocket, which ranked 10th in the league.
While he did rank ninth in EPA among quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks, a lot of that yardage came after the catch. Bridgewater finished dead last in average depth of target, per Next Gen Stats, and he was one of only five qualified quarterbacks whose completions produced a negative EPA when subtracting yards-after-catch. In other words, Bridgewater’s supporting cast was largely responsible for his high EPA number.
The numbers are just part of the story, though. Football is a complex sport and some film study is required when evaluating a player. But, after watching all 207 of Bridgewater’s dropbacks in 2019, I can assure you that the numbers line up well with the eye test. He’s undoubtedly a good quarterback — and one who should be starting next fall — but it’s fair to wonder if he’ll ever develop into a guy capable of elevating an offense. At the same time, there are signs (both in the numbers and on film) that he is that in him.
Let’s take a deep look at those signs, as well as the flaws that could limit Bridgewater’s ceiling as a potential franchise quarterback…
Bridgewater was among the best in the league at avoiding negative plays
One thing that jumps out when watching Bridgewater on tape: The dude knows how to play the quarterback position. That should be a given considering the fact that he’s a professional passer, but, even at this level, there are plenty of quarterbacks who aren’t comfortable operating from a tight pocket. I’m talking about going through multiple progressions while climbing and sliding in the pocket. Bridgewater has that in his bag.
Lacking a willingness to hang in the pocket after the first look isn’t open can cause problems for quarterbacks, especially those who don’t process information quickly. That’s when you see a quarterback take an inordinate number of hits, even if his offensive line is doing a good job in pass protection. Bridgewater doesn’t have this problem, though. He was sacked on only 5.5% of his dropbacks, per Sports Info Solutions. That’s a top-10 number, which is sort of amazing considering the fact that only 73% of his throws went to his first read, per PFF. The NFL average was 77% in 2019.
In general, Bridgewater did a fantastic job of keeping the Saints offense on schedule. Over 69% of his dropbacks resulted in positive yardage, whether via scramble or completion. Only three quarterbacks finished ahead of him in that stat: Drew Brees, Deshaun Watson and NFL MVP Lamar Jackson. That’s decent company.
Bridgewater can move a little bit, but he’s not Watson or Jackson when it comes to evading pressure. He scrambled only eight times during the 2019 season. In that regard, he’s more like Brees than he is the other two in that he relies on efficient pocket movement and quickness of thought to get the ball out while under duress.
While his quick mind can get him out of trouble, it’s also the main reason there are still questions about his ability to lead an offense.
Bridgewater doesn’t make enough throws downfield
Avoiding negative plays is obviously good, but only to a certain point. And it’s fair to say that Bridgewater’s conservative nature passes that point. While Bridgewater finished sixth in the NFL in avoiding negatively graded throws by PFF, he ranked 32nd in positively-graded throws. He was the ultimate game manager.
Getting to your checkdown is vital for quarterbacks on this level, and Bridgewater did that well. But he was too quick to settle for those shorter throws. Too often, he’d come off a downfield receiver who’d come open just as Bridgewater was moving on to his next read.
It’s not as if Bridgewater is incapable of making tough throws downfield. It’s that he just doesn’t attempt them nearly enough. Of the 42 quarterbacks who attempted at least 20 throws further than 15 yards downfield, Bridgewater ranked 11th in accuracy percentage, per Sports Info Solutions. But he attempted such throws on only 12.4% of his passes, which ranked dead last in that group.
Bridgewater has mostly everything you want from a quarterback: He’s smart, tough in the pocket and fairly accurate. If you could just bump his aggressiveness slider up a notch or four, he’d be a worthy franchise quarterback.
A different scheme could unlock Bridgewater’s big-play potential
While Bridgewater did pass on too many downfield opportunities, the lack of air yards was partly by design. Drew Brees was right there with him at the bottom of the league in average depth of target, as the Saints relied on more of a quick passing offense mostly designed to get Michael Thomas and Jared Cook the ball over the middle. With Ted Ginn Jr., the team’s lone deep threat, in and out of the lineup, New Orleans’ deep passing game was non-existent.
In Minnesota, Bridgewater pushed the ball downfield more often, averaging 7.9 and 7.5 air yards per attempt over his first two seasons, respectively. The offense, which was built around Adrian Peterson, didn’t quite suit Bridgewater but did provide him more downfield shots off of play-action. That is not something he’s had a chance to do in New Orleans. His play-action rate was only 19.5% this past year — one of the lowest rates in the league. Here’s the thing … no quarterback was more productive on those plays. According to Sports Info Solutions, Bridgewater’s 0.47 EPA per play-action attempt led the entire league. Now, obviously, that’s a small sample size, but almost every quarterback in the league performs better on play-action passes — mostly because those passes tend to be further downfield.
In a league where countless average quarterbacks — Jared Goff, Ryan Tannehill, Jimmy Garoppolo and Kirk Cousins, to name a few — have been propped up by play-action schemes, it stands to reason that Bridgewater could get a similar boost if given a chance to play in such a scheme.
It’s worth pointing out that Bridgewater was also effective on straight dropback passes, finishing 10th in EPA per attempt. Those passes often require a quarterback to go through his progressions, which, as we’ve covered, Bridgewater does at a high level. With play-action, the quarterback typically doesn’t have to do too much thinking … that could be a good thing for Bridgewater, as it might force him to just let it rip downfield more often than he does.
What’s the ideal landing spot for Bridgewater?
So we’re looking for an offensive scheme that features quick dropback passing concepts and frequent shots downfield off play-action. You know what? That sounds an awful lot like the offense New England has been running these last few years, and you know who might be out of a quarterback…
I still think Tom Brady ends up back with the Patriots. If that happens, Indianapolis would be a good landing spot, but that’s true for every free-agent quarterback and it’s sounding like Philip Rivers will have the right of first refusal there. The Bucs seem to be flirting with the idea of bringing Jameis Winston back, and Bruce Arians’ system caters to gunslingers.
With Tannehill likely getting tagged in Tennessee, that leaves the Chargers. It wouldn’t be the worst fit. Offensive coordinator Shane Steichen comes from the Norv Turner coaching tree, so there’s some built-in familiarity there. And the Chargers are in a weird spot where they have enough talent on the roster to contend for a playoff spot but are also looking to restart at quarterback. Bridgewater would be a good *sigh* bridge option for Los Angeles.
Who knows. With more reps, Bridgewater could grow more comfortable and start taking more chances downfield. If that happens, he could still unlock the franchise quarterback potential that got him drafted in the first round and give us the happy ending to this remarkable story that we all want.
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