It takes two to tango. Last February, I penned an article saying the Dallas Cowboys would be wise to pony up $203 million in a new deal for quarterback Dak Prescott. Over the seven yearsof the proposed deal, it worked out to an average salary of $29 million per season, which would have made him the second-highest paid player in the league at the time. Projections at the time were calling for Prescott to earn, $22 million or so. A outlier here or there said $26 million. $29 million was a huge leap at the time.
While the supporting evidence was meticulously prepared, there was a large contingent of comments (OK, mostly on Facebook) which scoffed and panned the idea as ludicrous. One year later, Prescott ascended as his first-three-year stats predicted and the market continued to explode to the point $29 million a season would now be a monumentally huge coup for the Cowboys. The annual salary conversation is now in the $33 million to $36 million range thanks to new deals for Russell Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger, Jared Goff and Carson Wentz before last season even began.
Most think new deals coming for Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson will leave these recent deals in the dust, and they will, but for more reasons than most realize. The NFL salary scale is likely about to take NBA style leaps.
Reports have the 2020 salary cap at close to $200 million. That’s almost a $12 million increase from what it was in 2019. Over the last six years, the salary cap has jumped by at least $10 million every season. And those gains are about to be made to look minuscule.
The NFL is desperately trying to get a new CBA agreed to by the players. The current one doesn’t expire until the end of the season, but labor peace is certainly in the best interest of the league.
Strategically, the new television deals will be negotiated to begin the 2022 season, a full calendar year after the new CBA deadline. This is for an obvious reason.
Over the course of the current CBA, the salary cap rose 66.7% from 2011 to 2020.
Year |
Maximum team salary |
|---|---|
| 2020 | $200 million (projected) |
| 2019 | $188.2 million |
| 2018 | $177.2 million |
| 2017 | $167.00 million |
| 2016 | $155.27 million |
| 2015 | $143.28 million |
| 2014 | $133 million |
| 2013 | $123 million |
| 2012 | $120.6 million |
| 2011 | $120 million |
The last TV deal, signed in December 2011 for $27 billion, was done less than six months after the current CBA was agreed upon. It was a 60% increase from the previous agreement.
TV deals, not stadium tickets and concessions (that they make a killing off of already) is what drives the cash cow of sports. Live sports is the one reason people still tune in across the country, giving sports league the latitude to command ransoms for the rights to broadcast them.
Look at the important points from the new CBA. A 17th game, two additional playoff games. These are done so that they can charge even more exorbitant prices for the TV packages of course. It’s good business.
Similar growth would put the next deal at around $43.2 billion, and that’s without the proposed 16 additional regular season games and two additional post-season contests. At least.
What it will do to the salary cap is something the NFL fandom isn’t prepared for.
It’s going to make all of these arguments about whether or not the Cowboys should pay Prescott $33 million or $36 million look silly in retrospect.
In October 2014, the NBA signed a new nine-year, $24 billion TV deal with ESPN and TNT.
Here’s a look at the top-5 NBA salaries for the 2014-2015 season.
- Kobe Bryant, Lakers, $23.5 million
- Joe Johnson, Nets, $23.2 million
- Carmelo Anthony, Kicks, $22.5 million
- Dwight Howard, Rockets, $21.4 million
- Chris Bosh, Heat, $20.6 million
Here’s a look at the top-5 NBA salaries for the 2019-2020 season, just five years into the new TV deal.
- Steph Curry, Warriors, $40.2 million
- Chris Paul, Thunder, $38.5 million
- Russell Westbrook, Rockets, $38.5 million
- John Wall, Wizards, $38.1 million
- Kevin Durant, Nets, $38.1 million
The top base salary in the NBA rose 71% in five years because of the flood from new TV revenue. Bryant’s league-leading salary from 2014-2015 would rank No. 47 today. There are now 162 players in the NBA making at least $8 million a season, compared to 80 in 2014; more than double.
The same thing is about to go down in the NFL.
With similar growth, we could be looking Trevor Lawrence or some 2021 pick commanding an average salary between $50 million to $60 million a season once they are eligible to renegotiate their rookie deal.
Savvy agents know what is about to go down; they are as in tune as anyone with the financial forecasts for the league that continuously dominates the Nielsen ratings like no other (link). There was a reason why Prescott signed on with CAA’s Todd France in advance of working on his next agreement, after being woefully underpaid for his rookie contract and having no recourse catch up.
The Cowboys, probably more than any other organization, have known where this thing is headed. There’s a reason they want to lock Prescott in for six-to-seven years. There’s a reason Prescott wants multiple millions more in average salary for a long deal as opposed to one for only four years.
NFL salaries are likely going to explode over the next decade.
The league’s proposal of the new league minimums hints at this, for anyone reading between the lines.
For comparison, here are the minimum salaries from the 2011 CBA. Relatively little growth throughout the deal. pic.twitter.com/qjaSAZI9pv
— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) February 27, 2020
Those new numbers are eye candy compared to the current $15,000, year-by-year increases to the minimums, intended to convince the rank and file of the NFL to ratify the CBA, but the 60% of the league that make the minimum are going to be left woefully behind by the high pedigree players who sign their deals in 2023 and beyond. The gap between each team’s four or five star players and the other 50 players on the roster is going to grow larger as teams will continue to have a large percentage of their rosters on rookie deals.
For instance, in 2020 under the current CBA the highest-paid player (Wilson, for now) will make 42.7 times as much as a 4-to-6 year veteran on the minimum salary.
If the cap makes the projected growth detailed above and a QB is making $60 million a year, which again is based on projections without adding the extra games, they will be making 51.3 times as much as the 4-to-6 year vet on the minimum.
I talk about it all the time, but the league is always one up on the players. Somehow, every CBA they get away with not counting all of the revenue in the calculations they hysterically title “all revenue”. The league skims about 10% of their actual intake off the top before even giving the players their less than 50%. Andrew Brandt goes into beautiful detail on the myriad of ways the players get screwed over.
Whether or not they show the fortitude to demand bigger pieces of the pie will come to light in the next days, weeks or months.
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