Previewing Celtics-Rockets II from a Houston perspective

The Boston Celtics get a rematch with the “Pocket” Rockets Saturday, armed with third-year swingman Jayson Tatum playing on an entirely new level since the teams last met.

The 41-27 Boston Celtics get a rematch Saturday with the 38-20 “Pocket” Rockets that bested them with their new, ultra-small lineup on Feb. 11.

Houston ditched the center position entirely just before the All-Star break, and Boston was one of the first teams in the NBA that had the pleasure of trying to figure out just what the Rockets were up to with the changes.

With four wins in five games since — and more importantly, some film to review — the Celtics get another crack at this relatively novel approach to building a contender with a little more data to fuel their strategy.

Boston fans have been focused on the emergence of third-year forward Jayson Tatum in the interim, who has been on a tear since the 2020 All-Star Game, and should be forgiven if they haven’t kept up on one of only two teams to beat Boston in their last 13 games.

To that end, we caught up with the Rockets Wire’s managing editor Ben DuBose to hear all the details we’ve missed while focusing on the Celtics morphing into a contender while Houston has, in many opinions, done the same.

(If you’d like to see the other side of the coin, check out the Celtics Wire’s preview for Houston.)

What should Celtics fans know about the Rockets since the last meeting between the two teams?

When the Rockets and Celtics last met on Feb. 11, Houston was less than a week removed from the trade for Robert Covington and the permanent switch to small ball. The sample was limited enough that it wasn’t clear how the experiment would turn out. At this point, it seems clear that it’s working. Starting with the first Boston meeting, the Rockets (38-20) have won five straight games, all by double digits. They’ve won eight of 10 and 12 of 16. They’re now 16-3 on the season without Clint Capela. It’s clear this provides benefits on both ends of the court.

With the floor spaced due to shooters at all positions and driving lanes open, Russell Westbrook has shot better than 52% in six straight games, and he’s exceeded 30 points in five of them. Prior to this run, the longest streak in Westbrook’s entire career of consecutive games at 52%+ shooting was three games. James Harden has exceeded 56% from the field in three straight games, and at 54% or better on 3-pointers in two of them. In the current five-game winning streak, Houston leads the league with an absurd net rating of 122.4 on offense.

On defense, they’ve held opponents below 20 points in the first quarter three times this month, winning all three games. To put that in perspective, prior to February, they had done that one time all season. With 18 blocks in his last five games, Covington has provided Houston the rim protection that many thought they lost after trading Capela. They’re far more versatile and better suited to contest and deny 3-pointers. While the Rockets rank No. 15 in the NBA in net defensive rating for the entire season, they’re No. 6 over the last 10 games.

The bottom line: The curiosity around the experiment has transitioned to confidence.

What will it take for each team to win?

One big storyline is health on both sides, with Eric Gordon having missed the last game for the Rockets with a knee injury. Obviously, Kemba Walker has had his own knee issues for the Celtics.

Despite Houston’s roster construction, it’s actually not size that has given them the most trouble. It’s quick guards that can penetrate and blow past the initial line of defense on the perimeter, as seen by Donovan Mitchell and Jordan Clarkson in the two recent games versus Utah. There just isn’t the size near the rim to cut off drives when that happens. Gordon has missed a lot of time this year with various injuries, but when healthy, he’s key as a solid on-ball defender that also has a thick-enough build to play physical. Many fans primarily think of Gordon for his 3-point shooting, but he’s been a big difference maker defensively during the last two playoffs.

Even though Jayson Tatum has had a fantastic month, he struggled against the Rockets, shooting 5-of-15 overall and 0-of-7 on 3-pointers. Robert Covington and P.J. Tucker are among the league’s best frontcourt defenders, and even against elite scorers, they can make life difficult. The potential weakness, especially if Gordon is unavailable or limited, is defense at the guard spots. Walker shot 5-of-17 versus the Rockets in Houston, but I’m guessing he wasn’t 100% at the time due to the ongoing knee issue. If he’s healthy on Saturday, he’s probably the Boston star best positioned to unlock Houston’s defense.

Is there anything else we should know about the Rockets?

Houston’s bench has shot extremely well since the All-Star break. They picked up Jeff Green as a free agent to back up Tucker at center, and he’s shooting 70.0% from the field and 61.5% on 3-pointers in four games with the Rockets. Austin Rivers and Ben McLemore are each shooting above 60% overall and better than 50% from 3-point range during that same span.

At the same time, it doesn’t take a trained eye to notice that those numbers probably aren’t sustainable over a larger sample. And of the four teams they’ve played since the All-Star break, three of them (Warriors, Knicks, Grizzlies) aren’t very good. Now that they’re facing a 41-17 Celtics squad on the road and on national television, there should be at least some regression.

Then again, considering they’ve been winning by an average of nearly 20 points per game, they do have some wiggle room for such a decline — especially if Gordon returns.

Historically, there’s a popular saying around the NBA that role players are better at home, and that’s probably true when it comes to the types of players mentioned above. In a raucous Saturday primetime environment in Boston, the former MVPs of Westbrook and Harden will probably need to do more of the heavy lifting if the Rockets are to keep their streak going.

The Celtics will potentially be entirely healthy for the rematch, though both point guard Kemba Walker (knee) and center Robert Williams III (hip) are day-to-day as they look to return from extended absences.

Expect the medical staff to be cautious with both, as the focus is on the postseason when it comes to player health.

Houston may also be without guard Eric Gordon (knee) and forward Thabo Sefolosha (illness), with both listed as being day-to-day.

The game is almost certain to be a close one, but with home court advantage and some time to have adjusted since the two teams last met, the advantage is probably slightly in favor of the Celtics.

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