The first draft class crafted by Green Bay Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst will always be buoyed by cornerback Jaire Alexander, his first draft pick, and the process that got him there. Gutekunst shrewdly navigated the draft board, securing a first-round pick in 2019 (which turned into Darnell Savage) while still finding a way to land Alexander, a terrific young cornerback and a core member of the Packers’ roster.
But the rest of Gutekunst’s 2018 draft class is entering the 2020 offseason with a fork in the road rapidly approaching. While Alexander has been everything the Packers thought he’d be and more, the rest of the class is either gone, trending in the wrong direction or in danger of being gone by the end of the summer.
The most obvious swing and miss was receiver J’Mon Moore, the fourth-round pick who barely got through his second training camp before getting cut. He was in over his head from the start, never gained confidence as a professional player and quickly fizzled out of the Packers’ plans. He was out of football for most of 2019.
Moore will soon have company in the bust pile if second-round pick Josh Jackson and third-round pick Oren Burks don’t reverse the current course of their flatlining NFL careers.
Jackson, the 45th overall pick, started 10 games as a rookie after injuries destroyed the secondary. In 2019, he arrived at training camp injured, got passed up on the depth chart over the course of the summer and then managed to get on the field for only 103 defensive snaps in 18 games. The Packers see his best position as in the slot, but defensive coordinator Mike Pettine trusted Chandon Sullivan – an undrafted free agent signed in May – as the No. 4 cornerback and the No. 2 option in the slot behind Tramon Williams.
Jackson was a healthy scratch twice. He also played more than 25 percent of the defense’s snaps just twice.
When on the field, Jackson was hugely disappointing. He gave up six completions on seven targets into his coverage for 63 yards, one touchdown and a passer rating of 143.7, and he missed one tackle over just seven tackle attempts.
Jackson’s ball skills and playmaking instincts from college haven’t covered up his athletic limitations in the NFL. His deep and long speed are overwhelmed on the perimeter, and he’s not quick enough in short areas to handle the two-way coverage responsibilities in the slot.
The Packers ended up deep at cornerback but an alarming lack of trust emerged in Jackson’s coverage ability from the coaches. Second-round picks don’t often get beat out by undrafted free agents signed off the street, but Sullivan was the better player and the Packers clearly trusted him more in all situations. Of the 14 games Jackson was active, nine finished with him playing five or fewer defensive snaps. He was inactive for the home playoff game against the Seahawks and didn’t play a single snap on defense in San Francisco.
Of all the players who played in the Packers secondary in 2019, Jackson finished with the third-lowest overall grade and third-lowest coverage grade at Pro Football Focus.
It’s possible the Packers will have to entertain moving Jackson to safety full time in an effort to negate his speed concerns and potentially elevate his positive attributes, but he might not have the physicality or consistent tackling ability needed for the job. Positionally, he sure looks stuck in no man’s land.
Forty-three picks later in the 2018 draft, the Packers traded up to get Burks, the athletic linebacker from Vanderbilt. He played sparingly as a rookie and was arguably more disappointing than Jackson in 2019, although a preseason pectoral injury didn’t help his cause.
Credit Burks for fighting through it and providing real value on special teams. He’s had some terrible injury luck to start his career, beginning with a shoulder injury suffered during his first preseason and continuing with the partially torn pec he suffered in the first preseason game of last summer.
Like Jackson, the Packers just haven’t trusted Burks enough to put him on the field. Unlike Jackson, it has nothing to do with positional depth. The Packers were desperate for help at inside linebacker last season and Burks still managed only 57 snaps, a wholly insignificant number for a player that should have been capable of providing much of what the Packers needed – such as range and coverage ability – at the position.
Burks has ideal size and can run like the wind, and he has an extensive coverage background as a former collegiate safety. But after a three-game stretch in which Burks played 30 snaps from scrimmage (Weeks 5-7), he played just 27 snaps on defense the rest of the regular season and was on the field for just 12 snaps during the postseason. There was no one above him on the depth chart keeping him off the field. The Packers just feel comfortable with him being out there.
Defensive coaches talked a lot during the offseason about fixing Burks’ eyes. They wanted him seeing things faster and more clearly. Athleticism in the NFL can be negated in a hurry if vision is blurred and processing power is low.
His sample size was small but Burks’ 2019 snaps reveal an unsure player trying – and failing – to figure it out on the fly. For such a tremendous athlete, he was awkward in space. Burks looked like a player handcuffed by all the tabs open in his mental browser. Thinking too much leads to mistakes, and Burks made plenty of them in just 57 snaps.
Blake Martinez played just about every snap in 2019, but it was telling that Burks, a third-round pick, couldn’t get on the field over B.J. Goodson, a veteran thumper thrown to the scrap heap by the middling New York Giants. It was just as telling that Pettine picked playing small safeties at inside linebacker over Burks in all his passing down subpackages. It was a sacrifice he had to make because Burks wasn’t ready to play.
He might already be in last chance territory. Martinez and Goodson are both free agents and unlikely to return. There is a full scale rebuild upcoming at linebacker. Burks will either take advantage of the opportunity or risk losing his job, especially if Gutekunst brings in young, capable reinforcements during free agency or the draft.
Jackson and Burks, two top-100 picks, desperately need to put together a strong spring and summer and carve out roles for the 2020 season. If they don’t, exits are soon to follow, and the bust labels will be rightfully applied.
The rest of the 2018 draft class is nothing if not underwhelming.
Moore is gone. Fifth-round pick Cole Madison has missed the better part of his first two seasons, the first due to personal reasons and the second due to a torn ACL that will rob him of much of an important offseason. Fifth-round pick JK Scott has endured wild swings of inconsistency, probably making the Packers uneasy about his future. Fifth-round pick Marquez Valdes-Scantling fell off the face of the earth over the final three months of the 2019 season and can no longer be trusted in a significant role. Sixth-round pick Equanimeous St. Brown missed the entire 2019 season with an ankle injury and has an uncertain future. Seventh-round pick James Looney played in just three games and is now switching to tight end. Seventh-round pick Hunter Bradley improved as a second-year long snapper. Seventh-round pick Kendall Donnerson is no longer with the Packers.
Two years can change a lot. Gutekunst’s first draft class was universally praised, both on a local and national level. It was impossible not to see the potential of the class, especially within the first three picks on defense and the three receiver prospects, and the addition of a first-round pick in 2019 only sweetened the entire deal.
Alexander is good if not great, but the complete lack of substance or impact from both Jackson and Burks and the burgeoning disappointment in most of the Day 3 picks has Gutekunst’s first draft class pointing in the wrong direction – and suddenly staring at a fork in the road – to start the 2020 offseason.