The Arizona Cardinals will have several decisions to make this offseason and one of them centers around the running back position.
In one corner, you have David Johnson and in the other, Kenyan Drake. Johnson is currently under contract and is scheduled to make $11.2 million between salary and roster bonus. Drake is currently a free agent.
Drake’s performance after joining the Cardinals in Week 9 last season has led many to believe the Cardinals will look to trade Johnson this offseason. But Johnson’s contract may make that a difficult endeavor.
First, re-signing Kenyan Drake should not be viewed as something which can only happen if the Cardinals move on from David Johnson. The Cardinals currently have about $54 million in cap space with David Johnson included. Johnson’s contract is a sunk cost. One which cannot be fully recouped under any scenario. His 2020 $10.2 million salary is fully guaranteed.
Releasing David Johnson is not an option. Cardinals general manager Steve Keim said that publicly on Arizona Sports 98.7 FM on Friday. “Cutting him is not an option,” he said. “Not only the cap hit, but you’re still paying the cash as well.” While he currently counts $14.2 million against the cap, releasing Johnson would incur a $16.2 million dead cap hit and a loss of $2 million in cap space. As of last March, Johnson’s 2020 salary of $10.2 million became fully guaranteed.
Trading David Johnson, however, comes down to two scenarios.
The first and most unlikely scenario is where the Cardinals trade him to a team outright. The Cardinals would incur a $6 million dead cap charge, but free up $8.2 million in cap space. Again, unlikely.
The second is where a team agrees to acquire Johnson via trade and the Cardinals agree to pay a portion of his salary. As an example, let’s say the Tampa Bay Buccaneers agree to trade for Johnson but require the Cardinals to pay 50% of his salary. Under this example, the $8.2 million in savings drops to $3.2 million and the dead money cap hit becomes $11 million. So, the question Steve Keim has to ask himself here, “is David Johnson worth keeping if only $3.2 million becomes available?”
Since Johnson will also have $2.1 million of his contract guaranteed on March 20, 2020, the Buccaneers would be acquiring Johnson for $7.1 million in guaranteed salary plus $956,250 in 2019 roster bonuses and $750,000 in potential per-game active bonuses. That’s a $8.8 million minimum commitment.
That is a hefty price for a 28-year old running back who has seen a decline in production in each of the last two years.
So, the question really becomes, how much of David Johnson’s salary would the Cardinals have to pay in order to facilitate a trade?
At a certain point, the opportunity cost of trading David Johnson vs. keeping him diminishes to the point where the cap space freed up to make a trade work becomes negligible.
For Kenyan Drake, the decision is a bit more complicated. Steve Keim confirmed they have had talks with Drake, and they have expressed a desire for his return to Arizona.
But at what cost?
Spotrac has Drake’s market value pegged at four years and $22.3 million for an average salary of $5.5 million. The site made comps of Jerick McKinnon’s four-year, $30 million deal, Dion Lewis’ four-year, $19.8 million contract, Tevin Coleman’s deal for two years $8.5 million and Carlos Hyde’s one-year, $2.8 million contract.
Here’s the problem with those comps. Both McKinnon and Lewis signed deals prior to the 2018 season and before a league-wide devaluation at the running back position. Neither McKinnon nor Lewis were productive in 2019 either. McKinnon’s season ended on IR before playing a down, and Lewis was relegated to a backup role behind Derrick Henry. For Coleman, he totaled 724 scrimmage yards and 7 touchdowns. Hyde totaled 1,112 scrimmage yards and 6 touchdowns. By comparison, Drake amassed 1,162 scrimmage yards and 8 touchdowns.
Hyde played on a one-year deal worth $2.8 million. Coleman’s two-year average salary sits at $4.25 million. Given their similar levels of production, this would seem to be the price point for Drake.
There is a way to retain both backs.
David Johnson’s contract has more flexibility if he is released after the 2020 season. The $2.1 million salary guarantee is only for injury and the cap charge would be a more palatable $3 million in dead money. They would also free up $9 million in cap savings.
For Drake, his contract could call for a higher signing bonus or deferred guarantees but a lower salary for 2020. Hypothetically, a three-year, $16.5 million deal could call for a $6 million signing bonus, a $1.5 million salary in 2020, and $5 million for 2021 and 2022. His cap charge for 2020 would only be $3.5 million and accelerate in 2021 once the team moves on from Johnson. Of course, there are a few ways they could structure Drake’s deal, and this is just one example. Will Drake accept this range, or is he looking for more? That seems to be the question the Cardinals are facing. If Drake is looking for a bigger payday, chances are likely he will be donning a different jersey in 2020.
What the Cardinals do remains to be seen, but we won’t have to wait long. The NFL free agency period begins on March 18th and it’s almost a certainty a decision on both players will come before then.
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Ep. 257
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Ep. 256
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