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What to do with Cincinnati Bengals running back Joe Mixon?
The state of the running back position is a mess these days from a money standpoint. Valuation of the position has taken a nosedive, yet the players are producing plenty.
But more and more literature continues to emerge suggesting investing massive money in running backs isn’t the best idea.
Examples abound. Todd Gurley of the Los Angeles Rams got a $57.5 million contract. Since, he’s failed to rush for even 1,000 yards and regressed across the board.
The Arizona Cardinals gave David Johnson $39 million and he turned around and rushed for 345 yards and two scores.
The market provides other examples too. Don’t forget how Le’Veon Bell’s $52 million burnt the Jets (789 yards, three scores) or Devonta Freeman’s $41 million hit the Falcons (652 yards, two scores). Drafting Leonard Fournette high at a $27 million hit hasn’t helped the Jaguars (career 4.0 rusher). Throwing $30 million at Jerick McKinnon hasn’t boosted the 49ers (yet to play).
Keep in mind something else here — look at the teams mentioned. The owners of the very top running back cap hits rarely had a winning record in 2019. It’s looking more and more like a sunk cost.
One could argue counter-examples exist. Ezekiel Elliott is doing just fine. Saquon Barkley has been worth his rookie deal. Derrick Henry carried the Titans on his back in the playoffs.
But we can play that game across the league with cheap backs too. Raheem Mostert, a journeyman running back, carried the 49ers to the Super Bowl. Former seventh-round pick Chris Carson finished fifth in rushing in Seattle. Marlon Mack, Aaron Jones and Carlos Hyde finished in the top 15.
Keep in mind the in-house example, with Giovani Bernard sitting on a $9.7 million extension, only to receive 53 carries and 43 targets last season.
What does this mean for Mixon? Will the Cincinnati front office dish him a massive extension at a time when studies have emerged suggesting more than 95 percent of yards-per-carry totals stem from field position and defenders in the box and nothing more?
Maybe. Cincinnati is known to do things in its own way. They’ve turned an analytics corner but there’s a measure with Mixon that isn’t quantifiable — his leadership and importance to the locker room. Mixon feels like the heart and soul of the team right now, the vocal leader it really hasn’t had in recent years. He’s always running down the field on the sidelines, his teammates adore him, he’s always the most prominent guy next to Zac Taylor.
That detail atop the production is probably enough for the Bengals to avoid a messy holdout and just pay the man. But it has to come with an understanding — these days, teams are mostly paying the big running backs for their past production. To expect another statistical climb or even staying at the same production level by Mixon has historically and increasingly been a fool’s folly.
Maybe Mixon can be an outlier. But the Bengals will probably end up regretting the cost vs. production down the line. Then again, since they don’t usually spend a ton anyway, it might not hurt them as much as other teams.
The noise around running backs is important to remember when it comes to Mixon’s future. Whether outside influence has an impact on what the Bengals do here is impossible to say, but keep in mind it’s important to set expectations accordingly if an extension does happen.
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