As inconsistent as the Los Angeles Rams defense was last season, there were a few constants on that side of the ball. Aaron Donald and Cory Littleton were two of the most consistent performers on the team, playing at a high level each and every week.
Donald will obviously be on the roster in 2020, but the same can’t be said about Littleton.
Unless he signs an extension with the Rams, Littleton will become an unrestricted free agent in about a month when the new league year begins. And if/when that happens, all bets are off for him returning to Los Angeles.
Coming off a career year, Littleton is hitting free agency at the perfect time. He’s set to cash in and become one of the highest-paid linebackers in football, be it with the Rams or another team.
The question isn’t whether Los Angeles wants him back. It’s whether the team can afford to keep him.
- 2019 stats: 134 tackles (6 for a loss), 3.5 sacks, 2 INT, 9 PD, 2 FF, 4 FR
- PFF grade: 78.9 overall
Analysis
Littleton didn’t get national attention last season, but he was unequivocally one of the best linebackers in football. He had the lowest missed tackle rate in the NFL at 3.6% and was the only player in football with 130 tackles, three sacks and two interceptions.
He was always around the ball, as evidenced by his nine passes defensed, two forced fumbles and four fumble recoveries. He was asked to help in run support, drop back into zone coverage and match up one-on-one with running backs and tight ends.
Littleton could do everything the Rams challenged him with, and in four seasons, he’s never missed a game. The combination of his durability and playmaking ability makes him a coveted player, one any team would be thrilled to have.
Linebackers in today’s NFL have to be rangy and excellent in coverage, and while Littleton isn’t perfect, he’s improved each season and played at a Pro Bowl level in 2019. He’s a big reason the Rams defense looked as good as it did at certain points last year.
Positional need: High
Here’s a list of Rams inside linebackers who played at least 30% of the defensive snaps last season: Cory Littleton. That’s it. The next-closest linebacker to Littleton’s 93.8% snap share was Troy Reeder, who played 26.9%. What that says is A) the Rams play a lot of dime and nickel defense and B) they don’t have many capable options behind Littleton.
If Littleton were to leave in free agency, some combination of Reeder, Micah Kiser, Travin Howard and Kenny Young would be in line to start as of now. If you thought the Rams run defense was bad the last two years, imagine what it would look like with Littleton out of the picture.
Even if the Rams bring back Littleton, they need to find a linebacker they can count on to play meaningful snaps next to him. It’s one of their biggest needs this offseason, which makes Littleton’s return essential.
Prediction: Signs four-year, $58 million extension with Rams
This decision is going to come down to Littleton vs. Dante Fowler Jr. The Rams won’t be able to keep both, as they’re likely to be two of the most expensive players at their respective positions in free agency.
I think they’ll pass on Fowler because his price will be too high, but the Rams will keep their homegrown linebacker in Littleton. He’ll get around the same deal as Myles Jack, Deion Jones and Shaq Thompson, who all signed extensions recently worth between $13.5 million and $14.25 million per year.
Littleton might edge them out, just because that’s how the market usually works, but not by much. Paying him in the range of $14-15 million per year would be reasonable and something Los Angeles should strongly consider.