The future of soon-to-be free agent right tackle Bryan Bulaga might be the most difficult among the Green Bay Packers’ group of veteran free agents to predict this offseason.
Bulaga, who turns 31 in March, plays a premium position and is coming off one of his best seasons for a team that won 14 games and got within one game of the Super Bowl, but any examination of his value must include his worrisome injury history, especially for a player over the age of 30. Teams pay for a projected future, not past production, even if the two are intertwined.
So many questions need to be answered. How aggressive will the Packers be about bringing him back? How in-demand will Bulaga be on the open market? Will his injury history scare teams away? Is Bulaga willing to take a little less money to return to Green Bay?
Based on his overall body of work, the quality of his 2019 season and other deals signed by right tackles around the NFL, Bulaga is likely worth $10 million or more per season over a two- or three-year deal. And the interest on the open market will likely be high. It’s a simple supply and demand equation; there are more NFL teams looking for quality pass-protecting offensive tackles than there are quality pass-protecting offensive tackles available. When demand is higher than supply, prices must rise – a simple Econ 101 concept that plays out every spring at offensive tackle (and other premium positions) in free agency.
Unlike a truly free market, however, the Packers will get the first crack at signing Bulaga. And it’s possible the Illinois native and Iowa grad will want to remain in Green Bay, where he began his professional life and started a family. Human factors are at play in any big decision. No player wants to give away millions of dollars, and no player really should, given the short money-making window for NFL players, but comfort and convenience are valuable, too.
GM Brian Gutekunst already said the Packers want Bulaga back. He knows the Packers have an open Super Bowl window, and keeping Bulaga would help keep his aging quarterback upright in upcoming years, but even he acknowledged how many layers of the process must still be peeled back before a decision is made.
One thing is certain: Bulaga is coming off a terrific year. He won a number of individual battles against a few of the NFL’s best pass-rushers, including Khalil Mack, Danielle Hunter and Demarcus Lawrence. Pro Football Focus graded him out as the 15th best offensive tackle in the NFL. Bulaga also avoided a major injury and played in 17 of 18 games, and although he left several games with injuries, he also started 17 games, and his only missed start was due to the flu bug that spread around the Packers locker room over the final two months of the season. He proved he can still play at a high level and stay on the field.
Spotrac compared Bulaga’s age and statistical production to other right tackles and estimated him to be worth roughly $10.1 million per year, with a contract guess of three years and $30.4 million.
Bulaga’s agent will come to the bargaining table with that information and more, and the Packers will have to determine if they’re willing to meet a certain price before the start of free agency. Russ Ball and his team will have all the information on his ability, health status and potential longevity and should be able to construct a reasonable risk-benefit ratio.
It’s possible the Packers will be willing to get close to $10 million annually over a three-year deal if the contract is structured in such a way as to give the team an out after one or two years. Or, the Packers might decide to offer something much more team-friendly in total value – say, a three-year, $25 million deal, or a two-year, $17 million deal, for example – and hope that’s enough to get a deal done, and if not, let him test the market.
One team to watch if Bulaga gets to free agency: the Los Angeles Chargers. Former Packers offensive line coach James Campen took the job in Los Angeles, and Bulaga spent his first eight NFL seasons working under the highly respected coach in Green Bay. A reunion is possible with the Chargers, who need offensive line help.
The NFL Scouting Combine will provide important pieces of information for both sides. In Indianapolis, Bulaga’s agent will get a gauge on the league’s interest in his client, and the Packers, if interested, can start working on the early stages of the negotiation process.
Bulaga’s future is complicated and clouded by many factors. In a perfect world for the Packers, he’d return on a team-friendly third deal, stay healthy and keep Aaron Rodgers protected for a few more runs at the Super Bowl. But the economics of professional football are tricky and may force the Packers into an uncomfortable place. Does Gutekunst and the Packers want to pay a premium price for a great but aging and injury-prone player, or do they want to start over at a premium position one year after getting one game from the Super Bowl? Good luck, Brian.
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