Quarterback Dak Prescott enters the 2020 off-season as a free agent for the first time in his career. The timing couldn’t be better for his wallet with fellow signal callers Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson eligible for contract extensions. It also doesn’t hurt that in the final year of Prescott’s deal, he produced at his highest level yet.
The view that some fans and analysts hold that he is merely a game managing bus driver who isn’t capable of putting an offense on his back may never go away, but odds-makers don’t agree, ranking him fifth in terms of MVP odds.
Early 2020 NFL MVP odds:
Mahomes 4-1
Lamar 6-1
Russell 10-1
Watson 12-1
Dak 16-1
Wentz 16-1
Brees 20-1
Rodgers 20-1
CMC 30-1
Zeke 30-1
Kyler 30-1
Ryan 30-1
Brady 30-1Via @SuperBookUSA
— Will Brinson (@WillBrinson) February 3, 2020
Also nestled in with a tie for No. 9, along with Christian McCaffrey, Kyler Murray, Matt Ryan and Tom Brady is Dallas running back Ezekiel Elliott.
There’s no arguing the top three on this list.
Mahomes is fresh off a Super Bowl victory and was MVP in 2018, the Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson just took home the hardware and the Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson’s accolades speak for themselves.
But Watson and division rival Carson Wentz being ahead of or tied with Prescott is puzzling. There’s no denying the talent that they possess, of course. Both are highly-drafted quarterbacks who have proven capable of playing like the best in the league for stretches.
But Prescott’s position in comparison with those two is wrong. There’s no doubt Prescott outplayed both of them in 2019. His QBR of 70.2 ranked No. 4 in the league and the raw stats tell a similar story. Here’s a comparison of the 2019 version of Prescott, Wentz and Watson.
There’s an argument to be made that whatever Watson lacked in the passing game in comparison he made up for with his legs. But Prescott ran laps around the field in terms of passing yardage, yards per attempt and and sacks taken. To have him ranked behind Watson and in a deadlock with Wentz is just burying your head in the sand.
For Prescott to climb to the top of quarterback mountain, it would require the same kind of production with a significant bump in touchdowns. It would also mean that Dallas would have to rack up 12 or 13 wins and a first-round bye; the formula for every player to take home the award since 2013.
With all that in mind, it’s not likely that Prescott takes home the MVP honors in 2020, but it’s more likely he does than either his in-state or divisional counterpart do.
As for Elliott, only one running back has taken home the title since Shaun Alexander and LaDanian Tomlinson won back-to-back in 2005 and 2006, Adrian Peterson of the Minnesota Vikings in 2012.
[lawrence-newsletter]