The Philadelphia 76ers (31-19) visit the Miami Heat (33-15) at the AmericanAirlines Arena for a 7:30 p.m. ET tip-off Monday night. We analyze 76ers-Heat odds and lines, with NBA betting advice and tips around the matchup.
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76ers at Heat: Key injuries
76ers
- C Joel Embiid (hand) probable
- SG Josh Richardson (hamstring) out
- PG Trey Burke (illness) questionable
HEAT
- SF Justise Winslow (back) out
76ers at Heat: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
NBA odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full set of today’s betting odds. Odds last updated at 1:20 p.m. ET.
Prediction
Heat 108, 76ers 100
Moneyline (ML)
The Heat have a massive home advantage in this spot—their 21-3 home record is among the best in the NBA—and city of Miami is even more electric than usual since it hosted Super Bowl LIV Sunday night. Both teams had several players in attendance at the Super Bowl, but the home team has to have the edge being more used to the world-class social life of Miami.
Philadelphia’s road struggles have been well-documented. The 76ers are 9-17 away from home on the season and have lost nine of their last 11 games on the road, including a 116-95 whoopin’ Saturday at the hands of the Boston Celtics. Monitor the injury report before making your wager because Embiid’s availability would severely impact the 76ers’ interior performance. The Heat give up the eighth-fewest points in the paint and have the sixth-best opponent’s field-goal percentage in the NBA.
However, let’s PASS on a moneyline bet because the 76ers +125 should be a bigger ‘dog and the Heat -150 is too chalky.
Line/Against the Spread (ATS)
Philadelphia’s defense is very reliable—ranked third in opponent’s points per game and fourth in defensive rating—but their offense is inconsistent. Again, the absence of Embiid would be vital because he’s averaged 26.6 points and 13.6 rebounds in the three 76ers-Heat games so far this season. Plus the 76ers are 12-4 this season when they shoot above .40% from 3-point land, and the issue with that is the Heat have the top-ranked defense against the 3-pointers in the NBA.
Also, betting trends favor the Heat in this matchup. The 76ers are 1-3-1 against the spread in the last five meetings, a league-worst 7-17-2 ATS on the road and 3-9-1 ATS on the road against teams above .500.
BET HEAT -2.5 (-110).
New to sports betting? A successful $10 wager on the Heat to win by at least 3 points would return a profit of $9.09.
Over/Under (O/U)
I lean UNDER 211.5 but ultimately PASS ON THE TOTAL in 76ers-Heat. Expect the Super Bowl hangover in a raucous Miami to hurt both the teams’ offenses. Both squads get after it defensively and are better than +4 in rebound differential per game. However, the Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Miami and the Heat has a 15-9 Over/Under record at home this season.
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