The Kansas City Chiefs are the odds-on favorites to win Super Bowl LIV, which is weird because they have a less talented team and a coach who has a proclivity to botch late-game situations. Because the line for the game is just 1.5, Las Vegas seems to expect a tight contest. Again, that hasn’t really been Andy Reid’s forte.

Maybe Patrick Mahomes is a cure-all. The Chiefs quarterback has made the most of a lucky twist in the seeding, with Kansas City getting an unexpected bye after the New England Patriots suffered a shocking loss to the Miami Dolphins in Week 17. Perhaps that rest made all the difference, because Mahomes has elevated his play to new heights. His confidence and competence may prove the difference-maker in this game. That — among other reasons — will be how the Chiefs win Super Bowl 54.

1. Patrick Mahomes has to put together a masterful game

It’s no secret that, in Super Bowl 54, the Chiefs best player, who also happens to play the game’s most important position, will have to play up to his usual standard of play, which, for any other player, would be too high. But we’re talking about Mahomes, a player who has been extraordinary in just about every way a quarterback can be.

As mentioned, the Chiefs’ roster is at a disadvantage from a talent standpoint. The 49ers are simply the most complete team in the NFL. There isn’t a position of weakness. In fact, they boast outrageous depth at position groups like the defensive line. If Kansas City is going to win, it will need Mahomes to compensate for the team’s shortcomings, which is only possible because of his preposterously disproportionate talent and the intense influence of the quarterback position.

2. The Chiefs will have to beat the 49ers blockers around the line of scrimmage

While watching the 49ers rushing offense, I find myself wondering: where is the defense? The backs seem to run free through the line of scrimmage, often into the second level, without navigating defenders or would-be tacklers. That’s because San Francisco’s blocking is so darn good.

It’s obvious to say that, in order to win a football game, a team must shed blockers. But this is so crucial for the Chiefs, because they’re facing an offense that has 89 carries and just 17 completions in the playoffs. If Kansas City cannot get off their blocks, the 49ers will run well. If they run well, they won’t do anything else. And they’ll win.

But we’ve seen the Chiefs flip the script on a supposedly impossible-to-tackle running back. In the AFC championship, the Chiefs held Derrick Henry to 19 carries for 69 yards and a touchdown. They must replicate that outstanding performance.

3. Don’t mess this up, Andy Reid

The Chiefs coach hasn’t had to manage the final moments of a game in this postseason. And even so, Kansas City had mental lapses in its game against the Tennessee Titans in the AFC championship. Damien Williams, for example, ran out of bounds with four minutes left in the game. Why? Just go down inbounds.

That play wouldn’t be a big deal, if Reid and his players didn’t have a pattern of making these mistakes. In a close game — which this Super Bowl could be — Reid will need to manage the clock properly. He need only look at his upcoming opponent, Kyle Shanahan, to see how detrimental offensive playcalling can be on a game. Shanahan’s mistakes led to the New England Patriots’ win in Super Bowl LI in the biggest comeback in Super Bowl history. Of course, Reid had similarly disastrous decision-making while managing his timeouts at the end of the first and second half when he was the Eagles’ coach in Super Bowl 39.

4. Don’t worry about tempo. Trust the conditioning.

The Chiefs can score quicker than any team in the NFL. They have two receivers (Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman) who would be the fastest players on just about any NFL team. And then the Chiefs have Mahomes’ rare arm talent — he can hit receivers in places on the field that most quarterbacks can only imagine (and most quarterback coaches would declare not worth trying).

In a way, that ability could prove tricky. If the Chiefs find ways to score quickly, then the 49ers may counter by running the ball slowly and methodically against the Kansas City defense. If that becomes the case for a few series in a row, the time of possession will lean heavily toward the San Francisco offense, which may leave the Chiefs defense tired. If they’re gassed in the first half, they will definitely be exhausted by the second half when the game could be decided.

But it’s best not to overthink this. The Chiefs generate big plays — they shouldn’t stray from something that’s core to their offensive identity. They should trust their defense’s conditioning, and if the big play presents itself, they should happily take they easy points.

[jwplayer NDfhp14o-q2aasYxh]