Super Bowl 54 is giving us a dream matchup between one of the league’s most explosive offenses and one of its few truly dominant defenses. The Chiefs offense and 49ers defense will grab most of the headlines, but we have a fascinating matchup on the other side of the ball, as well.
So how will those two matchups play out on the field in Miami? We’ve picked out 20 key stats that could give us a clue.
(Stats via of Sports Info Solutions unless otherwise noted)
When the Chiefs have the ball
1. KC Pass DVOA: 2nd / SF Pass Defense DVOA: 2nd
KC Run DVOA: 14th / SF Run Defense DVOA: 11th
This is a matchup of strengths as the league’s second-best pass offense goes up against its second-best pass defense. That matchup will likely decide the game. If the 49ers pass rush can get to Mahomes and the secondary can at least contain Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins and Travis Kelce, San Francisco stands a chance. If not and this hot streak Mahomes is on continues, this one could get out of hand.
2. The 49ers ranked 5th in success rate allowed on QB scrambles
The Chiefs’ run game has been more productive of late but that is mostly thanks to Mahomes finally getting over that midseason knee injury and scrambling more often than he had been.
Let's try this again, a little more accurately. Apologies for deleting the other tweet.
SF and KC have the exact same weighted offensive run DVOA: 14.1%. KC's rating would be only 2.9% if we remove Mahomes scrambles. Those scrambles are pretty dangerous though.
— Aaron Schatz đ (@FO_ASchatz) January 20, 2020
The 49ers defense was good at limiting scrambles against most quarterbacks this season, but mobile quarterbacks do seem to give them issues…
3. The three mobile quarterbacks the 49ers have faced this season — Kyler Murray, Russell Wilson and Lamar Jackson — combined for a QBR of 71 … All other QBs combined for a 28 QBR.
That stat comes from ESPN Stats and Info department, and it’s obviously pertinent with Mahomes showing more mobility in recent weeks. I don’t know if Mahomes is going to do a whole lot of damage as a scrambler; instead, I think it will be his ability to extend passing plays and give his receivers more time to get open that will play a significant role in this game.
4. The Chiefs led the NFL with a total passing EPA of 61.9 against defenses playing Cover 3
And it wasn’t even close. The Saints finished second with a total EPA of 42.8. Why does this matter? Well, the 49ers play Cover 3 more than any other coverage. San Francisco has been mixing in more coverage looks of late, so we could see a different gameplan in Miami, but if the 49ers expect to get away with playing a lot of Cover 3, the Chiefs will put up a lot of points.
5. Kelce has been the Chiefsâ most-targeted receiver against Cover 3, but Tyreek Hill has been the most explosive receiver against that coverage
Kelce has earned 38 targets against Cover 3 defenses, so expect him to get a lot of targets if the 49ers do stick with their base coverage. But Tyreek Hill is the danger man. His 0.66 EPA per target led Kansas City in 2019.
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6. The 49ers pass defense is more balanced than you think: Opponent passes targeting the left side of the field (away from Richard Sherman) actually produced a lower EPA and success rate than those targeting the right side.
Much has been made about Richard Sherman being parked on the left side of the 49ers defense and how the other side is vulnerable. The numbers do not back that up, however. San Francisco was one of only four teams that gave up negative EPA on targets to the offense’s left (or the right side of the defense) and it finished second in success rate allowed. Emmanual Moseley has held his own as the corner opposite of Sherman and he’ll have to do again if the 49ers want to slow down Kelce.
7. Only one player had more receptions when isolated on the left side than Travis Kelce did in 2019.
The Chiefs align Kelce all over the place, but if Andy Reid wants to avoid Sherman, it’ll be easy to do.
This is where Richard Sherman lined up during the regular season. He lined up on the left side of the offense (right side of defense) twice across the first five offensive snaps for the Packers. pic.twitter.com/WYGbyOxTpl
— Bill Barnwell (@billbarnwell) January 19, 2020
Kelce has done a lot of his damage as an isolated receiver on the left side of the field, so we could see a lot of the Kelce vs. Moseley matchup in Miami, as Sherman will almost certainly stick to his preferred side.
8. The Chiefs passing game is better when attacking the left
Reid may not need much convincing to avoid Sherman, as Mahomes has been a far better passer when avoiding the right side of the field.
9. Mahomes was second in EPA on targets 15 or more yards downfield.
This could be the most fascinating thing to watch. The Chiefs have been one of the better deep passing offenses for two years now, and the 49ers were the best in the league at preventing big plays. On passes aimed more than 15 yards downfield, the 49ers ranked first in completions allowed, third in catchable targets allowed, third in success rate and fourth in total EPA. If any defense can stop Mahomes from bombing it downfield, it’s this one.
10. The 49ers were much better at defending runs from under center (-0.13 EPA/attempt) than from the gun (-0.05).
The Chiefs may want to get back to the run offense they employed in 2018 when 65% of their runs came from shotgun formations. That number dropped to 49% over the second half of 2019. It’s been awfully hard to run from under center against these 49ers, so a change in strategy may be in order. Not that the Chiefs require a productive run game to put up points.
When the 49ers have the ball
1. SF Pass DVOA: 8th / KC Pass Defense DVOA: 6th
SF Run DVOA: 13th / KC Run Defense DVOA: 29th
Don’t let the regular-season numbers deceive you: the 49ers have leaned heavily on a highly efficient run game in the playoffs. That won’t change with the NFL’s fourth-worst run defense next up on the schedule. San Francisco may have to pass the ball more often to keep up with Mahomes and Co., but it will need a productive run game to stand a chance.
2. The Chiefs defense ranked 31st in both EPA and success rate against zone running plays
When you drill down into the numbers, this matchup looks even worse for Kansas City’s run defense. Kyle Shanahan has been more creative with his run calls this season, but he’s known for his zone running scheme, which the Chiefs have been horrible at defending all season. They were at the bottom of the league’s standings in both Expected Points Added and success rate against zone runs.
3. Nearly 70% of Jimmy Garoppolo’s total passing EPA came on play-action passes
The 49ers’ passing game is almost entirely built on the play-action pass. That’s how San Francisco produces big plays in the passing game. The traditional drop-back passes are usually used in conjunction with quick passing concepts that get the ball out of Garoppolo’s hands early. When the 49ers’ pass game is really clicking, it’s the play-action game doing the heavy lifting.
4. Chiefs were really good vs. play action, allowing 0.04 EPA per attempt.
The league average on play-action passes is around 0.20, so, yeah, the Chiefs have been stout against the plays the 49ers rely on most. If Kansas City is able to take away those plays in the passing game, it will be even harder for Garoppolo to match Mahomes throw for throw.
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5. Kansas City isn’t likely to load the box vs. SF
One reason the Chiefs haven’t been hurt by play-action passes: They don’t load the box to stop the run as often as other teams do. They took that to the extreme against Derrick Henry in the AFC title game win over the Titans…
The Chiefs only used a stacked box on 12% of the Titans offensive plays last weekend, the fewest they had faced since Week 6 against the Broncos.
In the first three quarters when the game was more tightly contested the Chiefs still only stacked the box on 17% of snaps. https://t.co/ybMANovtXc
— Nate Weller (@NateWellerr) January 22, 2020
Don’t be surprised if they take the same approach against the run-happy 49ers. The Chiefs will gladly give up running plays in order to prevent big plays in the passing game, as they should.
6. The Chiefs rank second in success rate allowed on deep passing targets
Kansas City has clearly prioritized the prevention of big plays. In 2018, it was the Chiefs secondary that ultimately let them down, but that hasn’t happened in 2019 thanks to the acquisition of Tyrann Mathieu and the hiring of defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. Opposing offenses aren’t having much success when targeting the deep parts of the field.
7. Jimmy Garoppolo led the league in EPA and success rate when targeting tight ends and slot receivers.
No quarterback was better when targeting receivers lined up at tight end or in the slot. But this is another strength-on-strength matchup, as the Chiefs were one of the better teams in the league at covering those players. They ranked 5th in success rate allowed and ranked 11th in EPA per attempt. Here’s why that could cause some problems for the 49ers…
8. Garoppolo had the worst EPA per attempt in the NFL on throws targeting outside receivers.
If the Chiefs are able to take away the 49ers’ slot receivers and tight ends, Garoppolo will have to do something he hasn’t done well all season: Throw to receivers on the perimeter. On those plays, Garoppolo averaged -0.13 EPA per attempt and produced a success rate of just 42.6%. The first number ranked dead last. The second number ranked second-to-last. Not good.
9. Tyrann Mathieu allowed one catch for five yards on 37 man coverage snaps against tight ends
One of the more highly anticipated matchups of the game will be Tyrann Mathieu vs. George Kittle. The 49ers tight end has been dominant against man coverage — ranking third among tight ends in yards-per-target — but Mathieu has locked down every tight end he’s faced in man coverage.
10. The 49ers led the league in yards-after-catch at 5.9 yards per completion.
The 49ers may not have success when throwing downfield against the Chiefs but that won’t necessarily prohibit them from creating big plays in the passing game. That will fall on Shanahan, who does a masterful job of designing plays that put his skill players in space. The Cheifs haven’t been great at taking down ball carriers after the catch, either. Kansas City ranked 21st in yards allowed after the catch in 2019.
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