The divisional round was much better picks-wise than the wild card round. The Vikings didn’t cover in our only loss of the weekend.
To the championship weekend picks!
Divisional round record: 3-1
Postseason record: 5-3
Regular-season record: 132-121
Overall record: 137-124
Point spreads were provided by Bet MGM. (HOME TEAM in all caps).
AFC championship: KANSAS CITY (-7.5) vs. Tennessee
How the Titans win
There’s a pretty clear path to victory for the Titans. We’ve seen them execute it in road wins over the Patriots and Ravens to open the playoffs. They run the heck out of the ball behind Derrick Henry and play stifling defense under the direction of defensive coordinator Dean Pees. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill hasn’t had to do much in the postseason, with just 15 completions and 160 yards on 29 attempts in Tennessee’s two playoff games. It’s easy to forget he was the most efficient passer in the league during his 10 starts. Even if Henry can’t go for 180-plus yards, Tannehill has been good enough this year that a play-action heavy game could help Tennessee move the chains and keep Kansas City’s explosive offense off the field.
How the Chiefs win
Kansas City’s come-from-behind win in the divisional round made it appear as though their offense is unstoppable. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes looked like the reigning league MVP, and tight end Travis Kelce looked as dominant as ever. It’s hard to imagine an offense this good getting held to fewer than 24 points, which feels like the number the Titans offense will max out at if the Chiefs get a good effort out of their defense. While Tannehill can beat teams with his arm, that starts with the Tennessee run game. If the Chiefs slow down Henry and make Tannehill come from behind, it’s probably a wrap in Kansas City.
Pick: Chiefs (-7.5)
Prediction: Chiefs 37, Titans 20
NFC championship: SAN FRANCISCO (-7.5) vs. Green Bay
How the Packers win
This is a tough matchup for the Packers on paper, and that’s evidenced in the 49ers’ 37-8 Week 12 blowout win against them. However, Aaron Rodgers looked very good in the divisional round, which by itself means the Packers have a chance against any team in the league. Where they win Sunday though is on the defensive side. The 49ers can be had if they’re careless with the football and give away possessions. 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo threw 13 regular season interceptions this year, and threw another in the divisional playoffs against the Vikings. He also fumbled 10 times and lost five of them. If Green Bay can force a couple turnovers and capitalize on them, it might be enough to swing this one in their favor.
How the 49ers win
San Francisco is the better team and wins this game if they stay away from mistakes like turnovers and penalties. They’ll also need a little more from Garoppolo this week after he threw just 19 passes in the divisional round. The 49ers’ run game is very good and will continue to be the catalyst of the rest of their offense, but moving the chains, converting in the red zone and not turning the ball over are three areas the quarterback needs to thrive in Sunday. On the defensive side, the overwhelming 49ers pass rush drives everything. They’re the best unit in the league when they’re rolling, and they make everything easier on the rest of the defense. Even if they’re not getting sacks, they impact games and force opposing quarterbacks into mistakes.
Pick: Packers (+7.5)
Prediction: 49ers 31, Packers 24