The Miami Heat (28-12) visit the Oklahoma City Thunder (23-18) at Chesapeake Energy Arena for an 8 p.m. ET tip off Friday night. We analyze Heat-Thunder odds and lines, with NBA betting advice and tips around the matchup.
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Heat at Thunder: Key injuries
HEAT
- SG Tyler Herro (knee) questionable
- SF Justise Winslow (back) out
THUNDER
- C Steven Adams (knee) questionable
- C Nerlens Noel (ankle) questionable
- SF Abdel Nader (ankle) out
- SG Andre Roberson (knee) out
Heat at Thunder: Odds, lines, picks and betting tips
NBA odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full set of today’s betting odds. Odds last updated Friday at 2:20 p.m. ET.
Prediction
Thunder 108, Heat 102
Moneyline (ML)
The Thunder and Heat are both above average on defense and play at a slower pace; Oklahoma City ranks 14th in defensive rating and 24th in pace in the NBA whereas Miami is 13th and 24th, respectively. Also, both squads are playing well recently—the Heat are 6-4 in their last 10 games and the Thunder are 7-3—but the advantage in this matchup goes to the Thunder because of the home/road splits. Miami is 10-11 on the road and Oklahoma City is 13-8 at home this season. Furthermore, the Thunder are better seasoned for a tough game as they’ve played the sixth toughest strength of schedule compared to the Heat’s 24th-ranked schedule strength.
BET THUNDER -125. New to sports betting? A $125 wager on the Thunder to win straight up returns a profit of $100.
Line/Against the Spread (ATS)
PASS on the Thunder -1.5 (-115) moneyline because laying -115 for a minuscule 1.5 points of insurance isn’t a wise move when you are paying $125 to earn a $100 profit if the Thunder win outright. For what it’s worth, the Thunder are better in their betting situation compared to the Heat in this matchup—the Thunder are 3-1 against the spread as 1-2.5 point favorite and the Heat are 2-1 when getting 1-2.5 points. Also, the Thunder are 7-3 ATS versus opponents above .500 and the Heat are just 6-6 against foes above .500. In addition, the Thunder have an ATS advantage in their recent history; the Heat are 1-5-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings. All these little tidbits just reinforce my bet of the Thunder on the moneyline.
Over/Under (O/U)
So the past two Thunder-Heat games have went Over but the previous eight all went Under. That’s a little scary.
But I LEAN OVER 215.5 (-115) because the Heat have the highest Over percentage in the NBA with a 24-15-1 over/under record, the added juice to the Over and the following trends:
- The Over is 7-1 in Heat last eight road games.
- The Over is 7-1 in Thunder last eight games as a home favorite.
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