It’s the conference championships weekend of the NFL season, with both games on Sunday, so it’s time for our weekly look at the point spreads in order to help you win some money.
Last week, Charles Curtis went 0-4 in divisional round picks (he’s 1-7 in the postseason after going 123-124-1 in the regular season) and Steven Ruiz went 4-0 (7-1 in the playoffs, 122-111 in the regular season).
Charles: “SHAME! (bell rings) SHAME! (bell rings) SHAME!”
Steven: What is the opposite of shame? You know what? No need to talk trash. I’ll just let the records do that for me.
(All bets courtesy of BetMGM)
Titans at Chiefs (-7.5)
Charles: Chiefs
I keep underestimating the Titans, just like the Patriots and Ravens did. And I am fully aware the Titans beat the Chiefs earlier this season by letting Derrick Henry run all over them and despite Patrick Mahomes going off for 446 yards.
But I can’t shake Ryan Tannehill passing for under 100 yards in each of the Titans’ first two playoff games. If the Titans get in a hole — and given what Mahomes did last week, it could happen — I don’t know if they can dig themselves out, even with Henry playing the way he is. Plus, the Texans got out to an early lead thanks to some uncharacteristic Chiefs mistakes that won’t be repeated. I think Kansas City wins by 10.
Steven: Chiefs
I mean, did you see this Chiefs offense last week? It erased a 24-point lead in ONE quarter and all of us were just like “Sure. Yeah, that makes sense.” That’s how good this offense is! We’ve grown numb to its brilliance.
I know the Titans defense is coming off the high of shutting down the NFL’s best offense, but Kansas City presents a different challenge. A challenge Tennessee is not necessarily equipped to stop, as we saw when these teams met up in Week 10. That was Mahomes’ first game back from injury and he threw for 400 yards and three TDs. As long as the Chiefs can limit the damage we know Derrick Henry will cause, they’ll win this one comfortably.
Packers at 49ers (-7.5)
Charles: Packers
Now this seems downright absurd to me. Why would you bet on the Niners winning this game by more than a touchdown when Aaron Rodgers is involved? The 49ers defense was elite in the second half against the Vikings last week, but Rodgers isn’t Kirk Cousins. And what if the Packers’ defense keeps this one close? If it suddenly becomes a lean-on-Jimmy-G. game, I have my concerns (that interception last week was awful).
So I’ll happily take the points, although you could say that my confidence is ridiculous given my goose egg last week. But whatever! It’s a new day! Take the points!
Steven: Packers
I re-watched the Packers-49ers game from Week 12 this week, and … I don’t think the Green Bay defense played all that poorly. I know it gave up 37 points, but field position and explosive plays were the root causes. The Packers actually did a good job of shutting down the 49ers’ base offensive concept, the outside zone running play. If they do that again, and just find a way to limit big plays, this game will be a lot closer. They’ll also need Aaron Rodgers to play like he did a week ago. He wasn’t great in the first game.
I’m betting that’ll happen. That doesn’t mean the 49ers will lose — I’m still picking them to win outright — but that’s a big line to cover.
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