Should the Celtics consider trading Gordon Hayward?

A potential free agent in a thin market, veteran forward Gordon Hayward’s future with the Boston Celtics is a looming concern as the Feb. 6 trade deadline approaches.

Should the Boston Celtics seriously consider trading Gordon Hayward?

It’s a question Celtics fans should have on their mind as the February 6 deadline approaches, as the Butler product will be able to opt out of his contract and walk for free should an appealing team have or open up enough cap space to steal away the 10-year veteran.

There’s also an argument to be made that Boston is holding itself back developmentally by directing touches away from the Jays, as we have come to call fourth-year wing Jaylen Brown and third-year swingman Jayson Tatum.

These are questions raised by Ryan Bernardoni, former Editor-in-Chief of Celtics Hub and current capologist emeritus that had Celtics Twitter (where he is better known by the handle @Dangercart) abuzz recently.

In response to the debate, Bernardoni laid out a case that a combination of factors (Hayward’s age, the need for touches, potentially expiring contract and interest from other teams) which could make a case for dealing the Indiana native this season.

“In short, he’s played himself into the sweet spot where a player can most easily be traded,” explains Bernardoni.

“The Celtics don’t have long-term control of his contract, he’s in the band between “mild negative” and “slight positive” contract value, and the team has cover at his position in the form of two young borderline All Stars and a rookie lottery pick.”

The data supports the idea that more touches are correlated with better performances by the Jays — of their five top performances, the majority came on nights where Boston was missing either Hayward or All-NBA point guard Kemba Walker, and virtually all of them were in wins.

It’s also worth noting this is regular-season basketball, and Boston would be making moves to win championships.

Here too, Bernardoni makes a solid case that the team as currently constructed isn’t going to rise to the bar of a typical champion, lacking an MVP-caliber player — and yes, he noted the 2004 Detroit Pistons anomaly, before you ask.

It’s possible that with no clearly-dominant favorite to win it all, this season may be as close to what produced that Pistons title. It’s also possible one or more such teams takes shape as the deadline draws close. It’s also possible this season is unlike anything we’ve seen before.

Time is like that, always throwing you curveballs.

Before dragging out the dreaded “t” word, the question of whether the Celtics would want Hayward to re-sign is brought up. If he does hit free agency this summer, it could end up sending him back to us on a bargain long-term deal if interest is tepid.

But it could also force the Celtics to choose between signing a contract they know will be a negative value at the end or losing Hayward for nothing in the same scenario we saw unfold with Al Horford last summer.

Not an ideal scenario, to say the least.

But it may be the path Boston must follow unless they can find a deal that would make sense for all parties, and that is easier said than done. Even still, Bernardoni floats a few interesting options.

The most interesting is a deal centered around the Indiana Pacers center Myles Turner and wing Jeremy Lamb.

It would be a costly deal, likely requiring the Memphis first-round pick and another first as a sweetener, as Indiana has been playing well and have not shown inclination too deal either player despite rumbles Turner might be dealt earlier in the season.

It would add a center on the same age curve as the Jays who eats up boards and can protect the rim with feet fast enough to cover smaller, faster players in short spurts. It also adds a veteran wing with established chemistry playing next to fellow UConn product Kemba Walker both in college and in the NBA.

Lamb’s second-unit scoring and Turner’s defense are probably about as good as the Celtics could have a shot at landing, and while I don’t think the move would make Boston title favorites, you’d also probably be able to spin off Lamb later when extending Jayson Tatum raises the pending tax bill considerably.

Another intriguing proposal would be Hayward for New Orleans Pelicans center Derrick Favors and veteran shooting guard J.J. Reddick.

This has the same general benefits as the prior deal, but with less time to decide on what to do with Reddick (he is signed for one season beyond this one to Lamb’s two), and Favors’ health is an added concern. It’d likely also cost two firsts, but Boston might be able to pull such a deal off without the Memphis pick.

The Chicago Bulls’ Otto Porter and one of Lauri Markkanen or Wendell Carter Jr. is another intriguing idea, though the cost is hard to gauge, as none of these players seem of interest to the Bulls to deal at present.

Markkanen has regressed a bit under coach Jim Boylan and could perhaps be seen as tradeable while still having potential in a better situation.

Carter Jr.’s Horford-like defensive skills would be ideal, but likely very costly to acquire if his contract is even on the table. Porter, as an expiring, would be a short-term rental clearing space for Tatum’s extension.

A deal for the Minnesota Timberwolves’ Robert Covington and Gorgui Dieng does similar work as the other proposed deals, though the ages of both (29) imply more of a win-now perspective.

Another, for the Oklahoma City Thunder’s Steven Adams and Dennis Schröder, does little to eliminate the threat of losing talent to free agency. Adams has the same player option this summer, and Schröder is on the books for one season beyond this one.

The deal would act as a scaffold into a future where the Jays are enough to contend, but it’s a fair question to ask whether we’ve seen enough from either to make such an assumption a wise one.

The looming question is a most difficult one, and without a “right” answer, given counterfactual projections don’t tell us anything with certainty.

It is one the front office will need to make in the coming weeks, as doing nothing is committing to a specific range of outcomes with enough about them similar to last summer that it ought to give any fan paying attention pause.