The Green Bay Packers can earn a trip back to San Francisco by beating the Seattle Seahawks at Lambeau Field on Sunday night.
Here are the keys to the Packers getting past the Seahawks and advancing to the NFC Championship Game:
1. Control the line of scrimmage: The 49ers and Titans both dominated games on Saturday by controlling the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. The Packers are capable of doing the same Sunday. They are more talented than the Seahawks along the offensive and defensive lines, with a major potential advantage coming on defense against Seattle’s banged-up offensive line. The Packers can win this game by dominating matchups up front.
2. Prevent explosive passing plays: Russell Wilson is a terrific deep-ball thrower, and both D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett can get separation and win down the field. Also, Wilson is one of the best at buying extra time and finding big plays once the initial play breaks down. The Packers can’t allow Wilson and the Seahawks to gain big chunks with explosive plays, putting the pressure on Jaire Alexander and Kevin King to play an error-free game. The goal should be to keep everything in front and make the Seahawks march down the field methodically. The Packers will feel good about their chances of short-circuiting long drives with a sack or a negative play.
3. Win on third down: The Packers offense needs to stay out of third-and-long, the group’s nemesis all season. The Seahawks don’t have a great pass-rush, but playing behind the sticks is no way for an inconsistent offense to operate. Those situations invite pressure and the potential for game-changing mistakes. On defense, the Packers have to be ready for an offense that has converted 16 third downs against two great defenses the last two weeks. Wilson, a great improviser, has been on fire on third down. Disrupting the pocket while not opening up running lanes for Wilson will be key.
4. Handle the run game early: Expect the Seahawks to attempt to establish the run early. Running the ball is in their offensive identity, and it might be necessary with all the injuries and mixing along the offensive line. The Packers have to match the intensity early and make running the ball a chore. Making the Seahawks offense one-dimensional plays right into how Mike Pettine wants to play defense. The Packers should be ready for read-option looks that force the defense to account for Wilson’s running ability.
5. Throw the ball to the backs: Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams and even Tyler Ervin should all get involved in the passing game. The Seahawks have given up a lot of production to running backs this season, and the Packers possess three uniquely talented players capable of attacking the weakness. Getting the ball to the receivers and tight ends has been difficult at times for the Packers passing offense, but the running backs have remained dangerous. This might be the easiest way for the Packers offense to create big plays.
6. Move Davante around: This isn’t a Seahawks defense of old. There’s no Richard Sherman to avoid. The Packers should still move Davante Adams around and force the Seahawks into tough one-on-one matchups, particularly in the slot. His ability to move around the formation will keep the Seahawks guessing and potentially open up opportunities for others in the passing game.
7. Move Za’Darius around: The Seahawks are mix-and-matching along the offensive line due to injuries. It’s actually unclear who will be the five starters. This lack of cohesion should give Za’Darius Smith a chance to do damage as a roving pass-rusher. Expect Mike Pettine to give him opportunities to rush from every angle, especially inside where the Seahawks are undersized at center and lumbering at the two guard spots. Stunts could be especially effective. Smith is going to be difficult to keep out of the Seahawks backfield.
8. Win the turnover battle: Turnovers change games, and both the Packers and Seahawks have been reliant on taking the ball away this season. In fact, the Packers are 12-0 when getting at least one turnover this season. Can they force Wilson into a big mistake? The Packers have protected the ball well all year, but they can’t be careless with it Sunday and give the Seahawks short fields. This could be a game that either turns early by a few turnovers or is decided late by a big takeaway.